2831 N Valrico Rd · Brandon, FL 33584

$149,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1958 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in the heart of Valrico. This fixer-upper offers a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. Situated on approximately 1/4 acre with no HOA or deed restrictions, this property provides flexibility and room to expand. The home features a private drive, concrete block detached workshop, well water, and public sewer service. With solid potential and a desirable location near shopping, dining, schools, and major commuter routes, this property is ideal for renovation or investment purposes. Cash buyers only due to condition. Bring your vision and transform this property into something special.

Key facts

• Public sewer service
• No hoa
• Well water

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVE
• WELL WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER SERVICE
• NO HOA
• NO DEED RESTRICTIONS
• ROOM TO EXPAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RSC-6; Property type: Residential, single-family; Living area reported as 912 square feet
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported; Annual taxes reported (see listing for details)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported

Exterior

• Parking: Private driveway
• Utilities: Private water source; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Northeast facing; Homestead property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 70 x 150 lot (approximately 0.24 acres)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,570
• Equity at exit: $22,364

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,341
• Equity at exit: $12,968

Cash invested: $41,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33584

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,186

Max offer price $149,990

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $490	+0% $448	+5% $405	+10% $363
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $379	+0% $448	+5% $517	+10% $586
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $486	base $448	+0.5pp $409	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,498
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $149,990 Active
2. 2002-08-06
   soldstatus $70,000
3. 2002-04-10
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,050 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − Depreciation: −$4,363
• Taxable income: $3,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$743
• After-tax cash flow: $4,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,579
• Household income: $72,267
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.15%
• Current HPI: 312.894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+216.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Listed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,050 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.