316 W 138th St · Riverdale, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +4.5/5.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$110,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
There's room to grow in this oversized home. It has great potential. Full attic that can be finished with 1 bath and 2 bedrooms along with an open floor concept for the first floor. Livingroom is combined with formal dining room, eat-in kitchen & 1 bathroom on the main level. Enclosed back porch and a full unfinished basement waiting your ideas for your new home. Seller has updated the roof, windows and Boiler. Owner has owned property for almost 30 yrs. and is ready to downsizes. This is not a FORCLOSURE, SHORT SALE nor ESTATE SALE. THIS PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD AS-IS. Buyer is to assume Village required inspection and repairs. The property is near public Transportation etc. .. In term
Key facts
- Enclosed back porch
- Updated windows
- Updated roof
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Directions: Halsted north or south to 138th Street, then east to the property
- HOA & community: No master association fee required
Exterior
- Parking: Detached garage (2 garage spaces, 2 total parking spaces)
- Utilities: Water source: Lake Michigan; Public sewer
- Home design: Detached single-family home; 2-story residence; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
- Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Age: approximately 91–100 years
- Exterior features: Lot dimensions: 40 x 124; Less than 0.25 acre lot; Located near commuter train
Interior
- Kitchen: Kitchen (main level)
- Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level); Master bedroom on the main level
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Steam heat with radiators
- Interior features: Enclosed porch; Full unfinished attic; Unfinished full basement; 5 total rooms
- Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
- Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 9.5% in Riverdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#434 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
- Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $1,909/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1868% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $49k; list at $110k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.74% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- 26.77%
- DSCR
- 2.19
- GRM
- 4.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $188,559
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13841 S School St | 0.11mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,475 (-4%) | 11mo | $140,000 | $95 | 73 |
| 13704 S Atlantic Ave | 0.11mi | 3/1.0 | 1,440 (-6%) | 12mo | $65,000 | $45 | 72 |
| 13845 S Wabash Ave | 0.39mi | 3/1.0 | 1,415 (-8%) | 2mo | $155,000 | $110 | 66 |
| 14107 S State St | 0.51mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 1,496 (-2%) | 8mo | $195,000 | $130 | 58 |
| 14115 S Wabash Ave | 0.57mi | 3/2.0 | 1,600 (+4%) | 8mo | $237,000 | $148 | 58 |
| 14209 S Tracy Ave | 0.55mi | 3/1.5 | 1,700 (+11%) | 0mo | $210,000 | $124 | 56 |
| 14233 S Wentworth Ave | 0.61mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,630 (+6%) | 2mo | $200,000 | $123 | 51 |
| 163 W 142nd St | 0.49mi | 3/2.0 | 1,339 (-13%) | 7mo | $189,900 | $142 | 48 |
| 14206 S Eggleston Ave | 0.60mi | 3/1.5 | 1,660 (+8%) | 13mo | $170,000 | $102 | 48 |
| 14237 S La Salle St | 0.63mi | 2/1.5 (-1) | 1,679 (+10%) | 5mo | $128,229 | $76 | 45 |
| 14126 S Wabash Ave | 0.59mi | 3/1.0 | 1,384 (-10%) | 11mo | $212,000 | $153 | 45 |
| 13934 S Edbrooke Ave | 0.52mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,313 (-14%) | 5mo | $73,000 | $56 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 7.82% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 26.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.16×
- Total profit
- $35,718
- Equity at exit
- $16,401
- IRR
- 36.8%
- Equity multiple
- 5.28×
- Total profit
- $131,743
- Equity at exit
- $9,511
Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60827
- Home prices YoY
- -31.8%
- Rents YoY
- 7.8%
- Active inventory
- 77
- Price-to-rent
- 4.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,909 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$577
- Tax from tax record
- −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
- Insurance
- −$46
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$401
- Net cashflow
- $687
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $749 | -5% $718 | +0% $687 | +5% $656 | +10% $625 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $536 | -5% $612 | +0% $687 | +5% $763 | +10% $838 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $743 | -0.5pp $715 | base $687 | +0.5pp $659 | +1.0pp $630 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $27,500
- Closing costs
- $3,300
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 6 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13708 S Wentworth Ave Riverdale, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1500 | $2,200 | $1.47 | 23d | 1 | 0.13mi |
| 13604 S Wentworth Ave Riverdale, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,200 | $1.09 | 25d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 19 E 140th Ct Riverdale, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2076 | $2,231 | $1.07 | 9d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 14124 Manor Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1440 | $2,390 | $1.66 | 25d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 14844 Wabash Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1277 | $2,320 | $1.82 | 25d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 14305 Irving Ave Unit 2 Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $2,200 | $2.00 | 25d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 18 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $110,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $110,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $110,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $110,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $110,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $110,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $110,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $110,000 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $110,000 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $110,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $110,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $110,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $110,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-04-29price $114,900
-
2026-03-30$119,900 Active
-
1996-09-26soldstatus $49,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $2,376 · $198/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,437 · $203/mo
- Expected delta
- +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 2.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,905
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,162
- − Property taxes
- −$2,376
- − Insurance
- −$550
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,832
- − Management
- −$1,832
- − Depreciation
- −$3,200
- Taxable income
- $6,952
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,669
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,578/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Thornton Twp Hsd 205
- NCES district ID
- 1738970
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 8% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,392
- Composite
- 6.92/100
- National rank
- #9976
- State rank
- #594 of 620 in IL
Livability — Riverdale
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #434
- US rank
- #8867
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Riverdale, IL
- County
- Cook County · 4,486,803 people
- City population
- 24,713
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,713
- Household income
- $37,217
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1868.0
Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 5,347,519 people
- By 2030
- 5,357,703 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 5,324,924 · -0.4%
- By 2050
- 5,230,762 · -2.2%
- By 2075
- 4,785,735 · -10.5%
- By 2100
- 4,188,836 · -21.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 2%
- Common ancestry
- Iranian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Cook
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -76.39%
- Current HPI
- 163.7725
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 7.82%
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
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| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
|
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Price history
+134.5% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-29 Price Changed $114,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-30 Listed $119,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1996-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
Property tax history
-1.1%/yrLatest (2023): $2,376 · +445.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…