3821 Ambersweet Xing · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$351,048

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 5,040 sqft lot $266/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS HOME IS READY FOR YOU NOW!! The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the luxe owner’s suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families. Prices, di

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Property zoned PD-MU; Lot approximately 0.11 acres; Water view: Lake; Community allows pets; Builder permit and license on record
• Financial info: CDD present; Other annual assessment: $2,907; Total monthly fees shown: $266
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (monthly fee $266) — includes internet and grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Canal/lake water source for irrigation and private water; Private sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (completed); Two levels; Northeast facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar (Edison model)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sidewalks; Irrigation (reclaimed water available)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom plan; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room; Electric water heater; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $336,597 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-52,826
• Equity at exit: $52,342

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-66,026
• Equity at exit: $30,352

Cash invested: $98,293 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,841
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,090

Max offer price $351,048

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,762
• Closing costs: $10,531
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $351,048
3. 2026-04-06
   price $331,048
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $349,798 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,914 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$655/yr (+$55/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,664
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,231
• − Management: −$3,231
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$10,212
• Taxable loss: −$3,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$757
• After-tax cash flow: $3,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $351,048 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $331,048 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $349,798 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid