5606 Belleza Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$215,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1974 5,270 sqft lot Est $268k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Located in La Villa Gardens in beautiful Holiday, Florida, this three-bedroom, two-bath home offers strong potential for investors or end users looking to build equity. The home features a desirable split floor plan with an L-shaped dining area and an updated kitchen showcasing stone countertops. A cozy Florida room with a wood-burning stove provides additional living space, while the updated bathrooms and attractive laminate flooring add value throughout. There is dedicated office space and a storage room that could potentially be converted into a fourth bedroom if desired. Additional features include an enclosed rear porch, fenced backyard,

Key facts

• L-shaped dining area
• Stone countertops
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• L-SHAPED DINING AREA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R4
• HOA & community: No HOA association; Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Publicly maintained paved road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.12 acre)
• Exterior features: Covered and enclosed front and rear porches; Front porch; Rear porch; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Wood-burning freestanding fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Dining area (l-shaped); Stone counters; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup inside; Inside utility/storage room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-15/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Trace Elementary School (math 39% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 611 students, 84% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,981/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 625% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $216k implies a 781% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,119 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5606 Belleza Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,458 (0%)	1mo	$187,500	$129	99
3412 Peterborough St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	3mo	$240,000	$167	71
5253 Falcon Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-8%)	3mo	$300,000	$223	68
5052 Roanoke Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-6%)	3mo	$191,500	$139	64
3420 Chickadee Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-8%)	3mo	$302,700	$225	62
5815 Mockingbird Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+4%)	1mo	$335,000	$220	61
3111 Finch Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,358 (-7%)	5mo	$250,000	$184	59
3533 Madison St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-10%)	2mo	$315,000	$240	55
6223 Appomattox Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-8%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	54
3505 Calera Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-10%)	4mo	$269,900	$206	54
2826 Raven Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-10%)	1mo	$190,000	$145	52
5700 Perkin Dr	0.43mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,272 (-13%)	1mo	$232,000	$182	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-40,794
• Equity at exit: $32,191

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-57,754
• Equity at exit: $18,667

Cash invested: $60,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,130/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $215,683

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,975
• Closing costs: $6,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3127 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	11d	1	0.05mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	4d	1	0.13mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	24d	1	0.34mi
5906 Elkhorn Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	14d	1	0.40mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	4d	1	0.46mi
3639 Madison St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,700	$1.30	24d	1	0.64mi
5945 Mockingbird Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,125	$1.29	14d	1	0.71mi
5223 Forum Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,990	$1.29	17d	1	0.73mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	4d	1	0.76mi
2578 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	24d	1	0.77mi
2555 Charlan Ct Unit Main Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,301	$1.39	24d	1	0.80mi
2555 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.80mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.85mi
4132 Hanover Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	14d	1	0.86mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	24d	1	0.95mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	4d	1	0.98mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	4d	1	0.99mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	17d	1	1.00mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	1.01mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	12d	1	1.09mi
5319 Drift Tide Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,500	$1.31	10d	1	1.11mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	1d	1	1.11mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	4d	1	1.13mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	4d	1	1.15mi
6765 Emerald Spring Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,500	$1.60	24d	1	1.20mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	1.30mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	4d	1	1.36mi
6413 Sutters Mill Rd New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,575	$1.46	3d	1	1.36mi
5720 Salt Kettle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$900	$0.64	17d	1	1.36mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	2d	13	1.37mi
3336 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	1.37mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	17d	1	1.39mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	24d	1	1.39mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	21d	1	1.40mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	17d	1	1.42mi
3427 Dellefield St New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1529	$2,280	$1.49	20d	1	1.45mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	1.45mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	17d	1	1.45mi
4233 Belle Isle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,895	$1.49	19d	1	1.46mi
4233 Belle Isle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $215,900
3. 2026-02-22
   listed $229,900 Active
4. 1977-01-01
   soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,130 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,130 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,094
• − Property taxes: −$4,130
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$6,281
• Taxable loss: −$3,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+781.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $215,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1977-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,130 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.