148 Indian Gap Dr · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1987 1.24 ac lot $97/sqft · at area comps Est $149k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WONDERFUL MANUFACTURED HOME ON 6 LOTS. 3 BED, 2 BATH, 22 CAR DETACHED GARAGE/ SHOP. OVER THREE HUNDRED FEET OF WATERFRONT ON CEDAR CREEK LAKE. NOT CURRENTLY NAVIGABLE BUT COULD BE WITH DREDGING. EUSTACE ISD. POA FEATURES MULTIPLE PARKS, MULTIPLE BOAT LAUNCHES, BASKETBALL COURTS, AND SWIMMING POOL.

Key facts

• 1.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, FHA, USDA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Cherokee Shores POA); Association fees charged annually; Association fee covers management fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage; Carport spaces not provided
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Co-op water; Other utility services; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Built in 1987; One story; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Storage; Subdivision lot; Wood fencing; Waterfront lot with lake frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: One-level layout; Fireplace (wood burning); Ceiling fans; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $150k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,656
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 0.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 S Cherokee Shores Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+3%)	19mo	$199,900	$127	67
11268 Cedar Dr	0.49mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,472 (-4%)	21mo	$98,000	$67	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,983
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,789
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,137/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Bowie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	44d	1	0.33mi
120 Trails End St Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,895	$1.61	44d	1	1.01mi
102 Lynn Creek Dr Mabank, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$995	$0.71	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $150,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    WONDERFUL MANUFACTURED HOME ON 6 LOTS. 3 BED, 2 BATH, 22 CAR DETACHED GARAGE/ SHOP. OVER THREE HUNDRED FEET OF WATERFRONT ON CEDAR CREEK LAKE. NOT CURRENTLY NAVIGABLE BUT COULD BE WITH DREDGING. EUSTACE ISD. POA FEATURES MULTIPLE PARKS, MULTIPLE BOAT LAUNCHES, BASKETBALL COURTS, AND SWIMMING POOL.

17. 2026-05-06
    listed $150,000 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    WONDERFUL MANUFACTURED HOME ON 6 LOTS. 3 BED, 2 BATH, 22 CAR DETACHED GARAGE/ SHOP. OVER THREE HUNDRED FEET OF WATERFRONT ON CEDAR CREEK LAKE. NOT CURRENTLY NAVIGABLE BUT COULD BE WITH DREDGING. EUSTACE ISD. POA FEATURES MULTIPLE PARKS, MULTIPLE BOAT LAUNCHES, BASKETBALL COURTS, AND SWIMMING POOL.

18. 2023-10-06
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

19. 2023-10-04
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

20. 2023-09-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

21. 2023-08-20
    historical Active Option Contract

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

22. 2023-08-10
    price $119,000

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

23. 2023-08-02
    price $129,000

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

24. 2023-07-12
    price $139,000

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

25. 2023-06-07
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

26. 2023-03-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

27. 2023-03-15
    historical Active Option Contract

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

28. 2023-03-14
    listed $149,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    WHAT POTENTIAL!!! Create your own private park-like setting on these 6 lots with a little over one acre and 329' of channel frontage. Launch a kayak or canoe down the canal among the towering trees. The property includes a 1987 3-2 manufactured home in need of your creative touches. A 20' x 20' metal garage or shed is also on the property. There are three water taps and two grinder tanks on the property if you wanted to add a guest house. Come enjoy those cool Texas evening sitting around the fire pit while you make this your dream property!

29. 2007-03-06
    soldstatus $47,199

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,137 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,608/yr (+$134/mo · 141.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,137
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$438
• After-tax cash flow: $3,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+217.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $150,000 HCBOR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-06 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-10-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-03-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-03-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-03-14 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2007-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $47,199 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,137 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.