427 Spanish Oak · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$84,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1966 0.26 ac lot $117/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an investment property or a place to make your own? This clean and well maintained property is completely fenced with a large carport to protect both home and cars. Great interior layout with easy to care for laminate floors. Washer, dryer and storage building are included in the sale. Newer HVAC! Great COMAL ISD schools and LOW property taxes!

Key facts

• Laminate floors
• Dryer included
• Completely fenced

Tags

• COMPLETELY FENCED
• LARGE CARPORT
• LAMINATE FLOORS
• REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED
• WASHER INCLUDED
• DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,895 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.60%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,137
• List price: $84,500
• Delta: -50.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
659 La Cresta	0.07mi	2/1.5 (+1)	720 (0%)	13mo	$89,500	$124	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,436
• Equity at exit: $12,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $24,708
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $698

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $434	-5% $410	+0% $386	+5% $362	+10% $339
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $340	+0% $386	+5% $433	+10% $480
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $408	base $386	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,500 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,500 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,500 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $84,500 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,500 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,500 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,500 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $84,500 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a place to make your own? This clean and well maintained property is completely fenced with a large carport to protect both home and cars. Great interior layout with easy to care for laminate floors. Washer, dryer and storage building are included in the sale. Newer HVAC! Great COMAL ISD schools and LOW property taxes!

15. 2026-03-04
    listed $89,995 New 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Looking for an investment property or a place to make your own? This clean and well maintained property is completely fenced with a large carport to protect both home and cars. Great interior layout with easy to care for laminate floors. Washer, dryer and storage building are included in the sale. Newer HVAC! Great COMAL ISD schools and LOW property taxes!

16. 1983-01-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,546 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$666/yr (+$55/mo · 75.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $3,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$834
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $84,500 LERA
• 2026-03-04 Listed $89,995 LERA
• 1983-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $881 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.