144 Willow St #1 · Humble, TX 77338

$225,000

None bd · None ba · 2,400 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1990 0.26 ac lot $94/sqft · 15% below area Est $266k · 15% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

RESIDENTIAL STORAGE WAREHOUSE. ONE ROOM READY FOR BUILD OUT. APROX 30' X 19'. LOT APROX 100' X 124'.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 246 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#961 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeland El (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 868 students, 90% FRL); Ross Sterling Middle (math 30% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 919 students, 85% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 32% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,386 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,562
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -15.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 S Avenue D Unit B	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,654 (+11%)	10mo	$189,000	$71	54
1404 Mcdugald Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,138 (-11%)	12mo	$297,000	$139	49
1402 Mcdugald Rd	0.48mi	6/2.0	2,138 (-11%)	12mo	$297,000	$139	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,014
• Equity at exit: $56,754

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-43,859
• Equity at exit: $61,702

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,271/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,063

Max offer price $166,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-267	+0% $-331	+5% $-395	+10% $-458
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-396	+0% $-331	+5% $-266	+10% $-201
Rate	-1.0pp $-218	-0.5pp $-274	base $-331	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-449

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 242 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 241 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 225 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $225,000 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    RESIDENTIAL STORAGE WAREHOUSE. ONE ROOM READY FOR BUILD OUT. APROX 30' X 19'. LOT APROX 100' X 124'.

17. 2025-12-11
    price $250,000 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    RESIDENTIAL STORAGE WAREHOUSE. ONE ROOM READY FOR BUILD OUT. APROX 30' X 19'. LOT APROX 100' X 124'.

18. 2025-10-18
    listed $275,000 Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    RESIDENTIAL STORAGE WAREHOUSE. ONE ROOM READY FOR BUILD OUT. APROX 30' X 19'. LOT APROX 100' X 124'.

19. 2025-05-15
    soldstatus
20. 1993-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,271 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,271 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,271
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,914
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Humble

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #17060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Humble, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,766
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,271 · +51.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.