531 Carlton St · Andalusia, AL 36420

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1930 0.52 ac lot $122/sqft · 14% above area Est $141k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this adorable, newly remodeled, cottage-style home! Enjoy relaxing mornings on the huge front porch or chill on the large back deck while grilling your favorite food. Lots of updates include fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, new roof in 2024, vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint throughout. The home features large bedrooms and a laundry room, plus a full security system. All appliances stay, including the washer and dryer.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-132/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Andalusia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Andalusia City (town): math 29% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #35 of 129 in AL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $130k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,518 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,830
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Simmons St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,214 (+14%)	6mo	$67,500	$56	56
503 South Three Notch St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,210 (+13%)	23mo	$143,500	$119	46
507 Seegers St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,204 (+13%)	2mo	$115,000	$96	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $43,069
• Equity at exit: $88,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $125,750
• Equity at exit: $166,472

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36420

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $127,951

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,500 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,500 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,500 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,500 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,500 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,500 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,500 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,500 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,500 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $139,500 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Check out this adorable, newly remodeled, cottage-style home! Enjoy relaxing mornings on the huge front porch or chill on the large back deck while grilling your favorite food. Lots of updates include fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, new roof in 2024, vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint throughout. The home features large bedrooms and a laundry room, plus a full security system. All appliances stay, including the washer and dryer.

18. 2026-04-21
    listed $149,500 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Check out this adorable, newly remodeled, cottage-style home! Enjoy relaxing mornings on the huge front porch or chill on the large back deck while grilling your favorite food. Lots of updates include fully remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, new roof in 2024, vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint throughout. The home features large bedrooms and a laundry room, plus a full security system. All appliances stay, including the washer and dryer.

19. 2024-09-23
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Great investment property in Andalusia available now! Property will be sold as-is. Schedule your tour of this charming, historic home on over half an acre today!

20. 2024-08-20
    historical Active Under Contract 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Great investment property in Andalusia available now! Property will be sold as-is. Schedule your tour of this charming, historic home on over half an acre today!

21. 2024-08-08
    price $39,900 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Great investment property in Andalusia available now! Property will be sold as-is. Schedule your tour of this charming, historic home on over half an acre today!

22. 2024-07-31
    price $44,999 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Great investment property in Andalusia available now! Property will be sold as-is. Schedule your tour of this charming, historic home on over half an acre today!

23. 2024-07-14
    listed $49,999 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Great investment property in Andalusia available now! Property will be sold as-is. Schedule your tour of this charming, historic home on over half an acre today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 46.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$917
• − Management: −$917
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$586
• After-tax cash flow: $453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Andalusia City
• NCES district ID: 0100060
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,645
• Composite: 31.52/100
• National rank: #5964
• State rank: #35 of 129 in AL

Livability — Andalusia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #13465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Andalusia, AL
• City population: 9,861
• Population (ZIP): 10,358

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Current HPI: 239.35
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+179.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $139,500 MAAR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $149,500 MAAR
• 2024-09-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WBR
• 2024-08-20 Contingent — WBR
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $39,900 WBR
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $44,999 WBR
• 2024-07-14 Listed $49,999 WBR

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.