37111-1 Middle Trl · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1982 0.82 ac lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $166k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Just Listed! Step inside this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath home that’s move-in ready and full of charm. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance, modern retreat. Features & Highlights: Freshly renovated with contemporary finishes throughout Open-concept kitchen featuring brand-new appliances Two full bathrooms with updated tile and fixtures Spacious bedrooms offering generous closet space New flooring, paint, and lighting for a bright, refreshed look Private backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining Located on a quiet street in a friendly neighborhood Approx. 784 sq. ft. Lot Size: 0.8206 acres Magnolia School District All-el

Key facts

• Updated tile
• Quiet street
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED TILE
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic / septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1982; Aluminum siding; Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10); Two total bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating
• Interior features: Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Electric cooktop; Oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($438/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $165k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,431 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,279
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 5.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36819 Pine Bark Ln	0.60mi	2/1.0	900 (+15%)	11mo	$169,900	$189	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $88,416
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $251,696
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $83	+0% $37	+5% $-10	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-20	+0% $37	+5% $93	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $78	base $37	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $165,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-03-31
    historical
13. 2026-03-31
    listed $175,000 Active 708-char remark
14. 2026-02-06
    listed $175,000 Active
15. 2016-02-12
    soldstatus $35,000
16. 1994-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,069/yr (+$89/mo · 54.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$567
• After-tax cash flow: $1,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+371.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2016-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,951 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.