411 Lytle Ave · Harbor Beach, MI 48441

$159,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1936 8,276 sqft lot Est $188k · 15% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New bathroom
• Fresh remodel 2024

Tags

• FRESH REMODEL 2024
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW BATHROOM
• NEW BOSCH MINI SPLITS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#134 in MI, #3,278 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harbor Beach Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #246 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Huron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Huron County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,124 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,532
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
724 Lytle Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	12mo	$142,000	$137	65
363 NELSON St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	12mo	$166,000	$173	48
363 Nelson St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	12mo	$166,000	$173	48
325 Second St. South	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,198 (+10%)	22mo	$95,000	$79	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-32,826
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-37,670
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48441

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $141,063

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2024-10-30
   status Pending 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

3. 2024-10-30
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

4. 2024-09-18
   price $159,999 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

5. 2024-09-18
   price $159,999

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

6. 2024-09-03
   price $169,999 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

7. 2024-09-03
   price $169,999

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

8. 2024-08-08
   price $179,999 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

9. 2024-08-07
   price $179,999
10. 2024-07-06
    price $199,999 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

11. 2024-07-06
    price $199,999

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

12. 2024-06-19
    listed $229,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

13. 2024-06-19
    listed $229,999 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    4 Bed 1 bath in downtown Harbor Beach with a fresh remodel done in 2024! Remodel includes New Kitchen, New hot water heater, New flooring, New bathroom, New Bosch Mini Splits, Newer roof, New drywall, New deck. New carpet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,566 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$898/yr (+$75/mo · 134.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harbor Beach Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2600007
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,037
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5879
• State rank: #246 of 540 in MI

Livability — Harbor Beach

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #3278

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harbor Beach, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,867

Population outlook (Huron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,325 people
• By 2030: 27,810 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 24,571 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 21,573 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 16,120 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 11,097 · -62.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.2pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.2 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.03%
• Current HPI: 250.479
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-30.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-10-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $159,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $159,999 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $169,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $169,999 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $179,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $179,999 REALCOMP
• 2024-07-06 Price Changed $199,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-06 Price Changed $199,999 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-19 Listed $229,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $229,999 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · -42.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.