Ramsey Plan · Bon Secour, AL 36535

$254,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 415 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,309.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 883 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $207,759 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,309
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -9.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15390 Planters Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,732 (+4%)	1mo	$271,490	$157	90
15334 Planters Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,732 (+4%)	5mo	$289,990	$167	86
15295 Planters Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+9%)	3mo	$277,990	$154	79
15362 Planters Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+9%)	5mo	$284,990	$157	79
15294 Tiller Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-6%)	1mo	$262,990	$168	78
15306 Planters Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+9%)	5mo	$284,990	$157	78
15417 Furlong Loop	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	5mo	$279,990	$148	71
15416 Planters Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	4mo	$281,680	$149	70
16129 Furlong Loop	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	5mo	$289,990	$153	66
8815 Gryder St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-12%)	0mo	$253,500	$174	63
15636 Rushbrook Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+13%)	2mo	$279,990	$148	61
8409 Shannon's Mill Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	4mo	$254,980	$173	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-67,897
• Equity at exit: $42,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-94,243
• Equity at exit: $24,409

Cash invested: $79,047 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 883
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,480
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,235/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,470

Max offer price $237,498

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-115	-5% $-212	+0% $-310	+5% $-407	+10% $-505
Rent	-10% $-474	-5% $-392	+0% $-310	+5% $-228	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-168	-0.5pp $-238	base $-310	+0.5pp $-383	+1.0pp $-457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,577
• Closing costs: $8,469
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15417 Furlong Loop Foley, AL	4.0	2.5	1891	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	0.04mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,990 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 409 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,990 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,990 Active 404 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $254,990 Active 403 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,990 Active 402 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,990 Active 401 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 397 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,990 Active 396 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 395 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $254,990 Active 394 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,990 Active 393 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    price $294,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

19. 2026-02-18
    price $299,990 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

20. 2025-05-03
    listed $294,990 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,814
• − Property taxes: −$4,235
• − Insurance: −$1,412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$8,213
• Taxable loss: −$8,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,095
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to paint and countertops would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops in kitchen — Modern countertops improve kitchen functionality and appearance
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops in kitchen — Modern countertops improve kitchen functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bon Secour

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 923
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Listed $294,990 Zillow