26739 Foamflower Blvd · Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$270,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 684 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1972 1.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-Bed, 2-Bath Home on Spacious 1.49-Acre corner Lot – offering both privacy and tranquility with no HOA or CDD fees! Step up to the covered front deck , perfect for relaxing mornings or evening gatherings. Inside, you'll find a bright and open-concept living room and kitchen, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. The yard features flourishing beautiful trees and two large storage sheds, providing ample space for gardening tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. Conveniently located near I-75 and I-275, this property offers easy access to local attractions, including Advent Hospital, PHSC, Advent Health Center Ice, The Shops at Wiregrass, and Tampa Premium Out

Key facts

• Large storage sheds
• Covered front deck
• 1.47 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• LARGE STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated; Living area reported at 1,284 sq ft (owner provided)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 1.47 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heat; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Kitchen/Family room combo; Living room/Dining room combo; Balcony; French doors; Sliding doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Quail Hollow Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 61% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $270k implies a 255% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,486 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,436
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26627 Brahma Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0	784 (+15%)	10mo	$140,000	$179	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-58,246
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,380
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33544

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,827/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,127

Max offer price $245,922

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-60	+0% $-136	+5% $-213	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-214	+0% $-136	+5% $-59	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-68	base $-136	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5561 Post Oak Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$1,883	$1.80	0d	11	0.37mi
26675 Players Cir Lutz, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,665	$2.08	3d	15	1.02mi
27745 Chestnut Lake Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,174	$2.13	4d	45	1.28mi
Address Not Available PL Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,674	$1.66	0d	25	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $270,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $270,000 Active
16. 2013-05-03
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$35/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,827
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,548
• After-tax cash flow: $-87/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,901
• Household income: $104,573
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.76%
• Current HPI: 266.5191
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+255.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,827 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.