1878 Gumberry Ct · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$239,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the brand-new 2026 Clayton Homes “The Charleston” — a spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath home designed for modern living! This stunning home features an open-concept floor plan perfect for entertaining, complete with a large kitchen island, stainless steel appliance package, and abundant cabinet space. The thoughtfully designed layout includes a convenient Jack-and-Jill bathroom, spacious bedrooms, and a private owner’s suite retreat. Step outside to enjoy the large, private backyard with endless possibilities for outdoor living, gatherings, or relaxation. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this beautiful new home with space, style, and functionality all in

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Built 2026
• Listed 6 days

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER’S SUITE RETREAT
• LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Crawl space basement

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from spring and well; Sewer via holding tank and septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property type
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Located in the GRAYS CREEK subdivision; Zoned R6A (Residential District)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms included in the 9 total rooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Window coverings and blinds; No fireplace; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($371/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gray'S Creek Middle (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 1,126 students, 50% FRL); Gray'S Creek High (math 61% / reading 58%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,395 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $240k implies a 1163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,857 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-34,096
• Equity at exit: $35,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-15,272
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $239,990

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $239,990 Active
3. 2026-01-16
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$880
• After-tax cash flow: $1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1163.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $239,990 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $112 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.