2787 Pocono Cir · Penn Estates, PA 18321

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2004 0.43 ac lot $266/sqft · 72% above area Est $325k · at est. $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING POCONOS BI-LEVEL HOME Pride of Ownership Shows! Lovingly Maintained 3BR 2BA Bi-Level Home Features METAL ROOF, GENERAC Generator, Newer Heating System, Central A/C, FENCED BACK YARD DOG KENNEL w/ Outdoor Shed Plus Built-In Garage, Recently Landscaped & Convenient Paved Horseshoe Driveway Situated in Commuter Friendly Location in Low Dues Quaint BARTON GLEN Non-Gated Lake Community Off I-80! Low HOA Only $320/Year w/ Clubhouse, Playground, Picnic Area & Community In-Ground Pool! Main Level Features Spacious Living Room w/ BAMBOO Floors, Upgraded Modern Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & Custom Tile Backsplash Plus Dining Area w/ Access to Deck Overlooking Back Yard! 3 Generous Sized Bedrooms w/ Main Bath & 3' OAK HARDWOOD Floors! Lower Level Features Large Family Room or 4th Studio Bedroom w/ 2nd Full Bath & Laundry Area Plus PELLET STOVE for Heat Efficiency! Oil Heat w/ Propane for Back-Up Generator! Additional Storage or Den Extending to Built-In Garage w/ Utility Room Plus French Drains Outside Garage Door! Lower Level Angled Tiled Floors to Prevent Water Seepage! Close to All Major Poconos Attractions & Shopping! No STR Allowed in Residential Zone in Pocono Township. Location is Ideal for Dogs as Property Backs to I-80 to Drown Out Noise! Area is Continually Evolving w/ New Commercial Developments Nearby! Call Today for Your Private Showing! * * Previous Deal fell through, at no fault to Seller, due to Buyer's mortgage denial with underwriter conditions not approved. Property appraised 'at value' at $315K.

Key facts

• Generac generator
• Metal roof
• Recently landscaped

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• GENERAC GENERATOR
• FENCED BACK YARD DOG KENNEL
• BUILT IN GARAGE
• RECENTLY LANDSCAPED
• PAVED HORSESHOE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Penn Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#915 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $315k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $286,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,762
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -3.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Dory Pl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+1%)	20mo	$250,000	$208	68
2611 Fernwood Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-5%)	7mo	$220,000	$196	67
514 Ridgeview Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+8%)	12mo	$265,000	$206	65
2146 Sky High Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-4%)	7mo	$257,450	$227	61
1229 Glenbrook Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-3%)	16mo	$285,000	$247	58
1221 Glenbrook Rd	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	20mo	$235,000	$204	52
329 Merry Hill Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+11%)	20mo	$315,000	$239	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $27,294
• Equity at exit: $119,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $110,436
• Equity at exit: $168,126

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18321

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,695/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,787

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $315,000 Pending 97 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $315,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-04-27
   status Active 1576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1576 chars)

   CHARMING POCONOS BI-LEVEL HOME Pride of Ownership Shows! Lovingly Maintained 3BR 2BA Bi-Level Home Features METAL ROOF, GENERAC Generator, Newer Heating System, Central A/C, FENCED BACK YARD DOG KENNEL w/ Outdoor Shed Plus Built-In Garage, Recently Landscaped & Convenient Paved Horseshoe Driveway Situated in Commuter Friendly Location in Low Dues Quaint BARTON GLEN Non-Gated Lake Community Off I-80! Low HOA Only $320/Year w/ Clubhouse, Playground, Picnic Area & Community In-Ground Pool! Main Level Features Spacious Living Room w/ BAMBOO Floors, Upgraded Modern Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & Custom Tile Backsplash Plus Dining Area w/ Access to Deck Overlooking Back Yard! 3 Generous Sized Bedrooms w/ Main Bath & 3' OAK HARDWOOD Floors! Lower Level Features Large Family Room or 4th Studio Bedroom w/ 2nd Full Bath & Laundry Area Plus PELLET STOVE for Heat Efficiency! Oil Heat w/ Propane for Back-Up Generator! Additional Storage or Den Extending to Built-In Garage w/ Utility Room Plus French Drains Outside Garage Door! Lower Level Angled Tiled Floors to Prevent Water Seepage! Close to All Major Poconos Attractions & Shopping! No STR Allowed in Residential Zone in Pocono Township. Location is Ideal for Dogs as Property Backs to I-80 to Drown Out Noise! Area is Continually Evolving w/ New Commercial Developments Nearby! Call Today for Your Private Showing! * * Previous Deal fell through, at no fault to Seller, due to Buyer's mortgage denial with underwriter conditions not approved. Property appraised 'at value' at $315K.

4. 2026-03-07
   status Pending 1576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1576 chars)

   CHARMING POCONOS BI-LEVEL HOME Pride of Ownership Shows! Lovingly Maintained 3BR 2BA Bi-Level Home Features METAL ROOF, GENERAC Generator, Newer Heating System, Central A/C, FENCED BACK YARD DOG KENNEL w/ Outdoor Shed Plus Built-In Garage, Recently Landscaped & Convenient Paved Horseshoe Driveway Situated in Commuter Friendly Location in Low Dues Quaint BARTON GLEN Non-Gated Lake Community Off I-80! Low HOA Only $320/Year w/ Clubhouse, Playground, Picnic Area & Community In-Ground Pool! Main Level Features Spacious Living Room w/ BAMBOO Floors, Upgraded Modern Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & Custom Tile Backsplash Plus Dining Area w/ Access to Deck Overlooking Back Yard! 3 Generous Sized Bedrooms w/ Main Bath & 3' OAK HARDWOOD Floors! Lower Level Features Large Family Room or 4th Studio Bedroom w/ 2nd Full Bath & Laundry Area Plus PELLET STOVE for Heat Efficiency! Oil Heat w/ Propane for Back-Up Generator! Additional Storage or Den Extending to Built-In Garage w/ Utility Room Plus French Drains Outside Garage Door! Lower Level Angled Tiled Floors to Prevent Water Seepage! Close to All Major Poconos Attractions & Shopping! No STR Allowed in Residential Zone in Pocono Township. Location is Ideal for Dogs as Property Backs to I-80 to Drown Out Noise! Area is Continually Evolving w/ New Commercial Developments Nearby! Call Today for Your Private Showing! * * Previous Deal fell through, at no fault to Seller, due to Buyer's mortgage denial with underwriter conditions not approved. Property appraised 'at value' at $315K.

5. 2026-01-01
   listed $315,000 Active 1576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1576 chars)

   CHARMING POCONOS BI-LEVEL HOME Pride of Ownership Shows! Lovingly Maintained 3BR 2BA Bi-Level Home Features METAL ROOF, GENERAC Generator, Newer Heating System, Central A/C, FENCED BACK YARD DOG KENNEL w/ Outdoor Shed Plus Built-In Garage, Recently Landscaped & Convenient Paved Horseshoe Driveway Situated in Commuter Friendly Location in Low Dues Quaint BARTON GLEN Non-Gated Lake Community Off I-80! Low HOA Only $320/Year w/ Clubhouse, Playground, Picnic Area & Community In-Ground Pool! Main Level Features Spacious Living Room w/ BAMBOO Floors, Upgraded Modern Kitchen w/ Granite Counters & Custom Tile Backsplash Plus Dining Area w/ Access to Deck Overlooking Back Yard! 3 Generous Sized Bedrooms w/ Main Bath & 3' OAK HARDWOOD Floors! Lower Level Features Large Family Room or 4th Studio Bedroom w/ 2nd Full Bath & Laundry Area Plus PELLET STOVE for Heat Efficiency! Oil Heat w/ Propane for Back-Up Generator! Additional Storage or Den Extending to Built-In Garage w/ Utility Room Plus French Drains Outside Garage Door! Lower Level Angled Tiled Floors to Prevent Water Seepage! Close to All Major Poconos Attractions & Shopping! No STR Allowed in Residential Zone in Pocono Township. Location is Ideal for Dogs as Property Backs to I-80 to Drown Out Noise! Area is Continually Evolving w/ New Commercial Developments Nearby! Call Today for Your Private Showing! * * Previous Deal fell through, at no fault to Seller, due to Buyer's mortgage denial with underwriter conditions not approved. Property appraised 'at value' at $315K.

6. 2025-10-25
   listed $325,000 Active
7. 2025-07-10
   price $350,000
8. 2025-05-24
   price $359,900
9. 2025-05-05
   listed $375,000 Active
10. 2004-04-27
    soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,695 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,836 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,695
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,871
• − Management: −$2,871
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$3,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$782
• After-tax cash flow: $2,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Penn Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #915
• US rank: #9917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,746

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Chinese 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Current HPI: 162.4904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+96.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-03-07 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-01-01 Listed $315,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-25 Listed $325,000 PMAR
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $350,000 PMAR
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $359,900 PMAR
• 2025-05-05 Listed $375,000 PMAR
• 2004-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,695 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.