Wagener Plan · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$461,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,054 sqft · SingleFamily · 316 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Open Concept Kitchen: Enjoy the freedom of an open layout, perfect for entertaining and family gatherings. Elegant Dining Room: Boasting coffered ceilings and bay windows, this space is infused with architectural charm and natural light, making it perfect for memorable gatherings and refined entertaining. Flexible Living Space: A versatile flex space is ideal for a home office, living room, or whatever suits your lifestyle. Loft Area: A versatile loft area upstairs offers endless possibilities, whether it's a cozy reading nook, a game room, or a second living room for relaxation. Large Primary Suite: The primary bedroom is a luxurious retreat, boasting ample space and a private en-suite bathroom with a walk-in shower. Walk-In Closets: Stay organized with his and hers walk-in closets in the primary suite, offering plenty of storage. Upstairs Laundry Room: Say goodbye to hauling laundry up and down stairs. The convenience of an upstairs laundry room makes household chores a breeze.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Walk-in closets
• Loft area

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• LOFT AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $461,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $533,590.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $462k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-749 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $425k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $372k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,720/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 485% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $372,010 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.01%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,590
• List price: $461,990
• Delta: -13.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1509 Royce Dr	0.35mi	4/3.5	3,173 (+4%)	5mo	$510,000	$161	67
118 Arabella Pkwy	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,429 (+12%)	1mo	$499,999	$146	67
720 Lester Mill Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,100 (+2%)	2mo	$649,900	$210	61
1500 Royce Dr	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,100 (+2%)	9mo	$475,000	$153	61
1615 Avery Dr	0.37mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,785 (-9%)	3mo	$584,900	$210	52
305 Canvasback Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,967 (-3%)	7mo	$730,000	$246	52
1269 Mcallistar Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,087 (+1%)	23mo	$459,900	$149	48
1043 Eagles Brooke Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,927 (-4%)	21mo	$440,000	$150	48
800 Lester Mill Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	3,096 (+1%)	21mo	$485,000	$157	45
1202 Mcallistar Dr	0.43mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,008 (-2%)	24mo	$545,000	$181	42
345 Mallard Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,506 (+15%)	13mo	$759,000	$216	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-137,208
• Equity at exit: $79,560

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-193,228
• Equity at exit: $46,135

Cash invested: $149,405 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,798
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$667 /mo · $8,004/yr
• Insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $-749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,668

Max offer price $425,260

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-380	-5% $-564	+0% $-749	+5% $-933	+10% $-1,117
Rent	-10% $-1,043	-5% $-896	+0% $-749	+5% $-602	+10% $-455
Rate	-1.0pp $-480	-0.5pp $-613	base $-749	+0.5pp $-887	+1.0pp $-1,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,397
• Closing costs: $16,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Arabella Pkwy Locust Grove, GA	5.0	4.0	4492	$4,320	$0.96	44d	1	0.05mi
1248 Nottley Dr Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	2860	$2,350	$0.82	0d	1	1.14mi
1024 Levista Dr Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	2862	$2,570	$0.90	18d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $461,990 Active 316 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $461,990 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $461,990 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $461,990 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $461,990 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $461,990 Active 308 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $461,990 Active 304 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $461,990 Active 303 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $461,990 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $461,990 Active 299 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $461,990 Active 298 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $461,990 Active 297 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $461,990 Active 296 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $461,990 Active 295 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $461,990 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Spacious Open Concept Kitchen: Enjoy the freedom of an open layout, perfect for entertaining and family gatherings. Elegant Dining Room: Boasting coffered ceilings and bay windows, this space is infused with architectural charm and natural light, making it perfect for memorable gatherings and refined entertaining. Flexible Living Space: A versatile flex space is ideal for a home office, living room, or whatever suits your lifestyle. Loft Area: A versatile loft area upstairs offers endless possibilities, whether it's a cozy reading nook, a game room, or a second living room for relaxation. Large Primary Suite: The primary bedroom is a luxurious retreat, boasting ample space and a private en-suite bathroom with a walk-in shower. Walk-In Closets: Stay organized with his and hers walk-in closets in the primary suite, offering plenty of storage. Upstairs Laundry Room: Say goodbye to hauling laundry up and down stairs. The convenience of an upstairs laundry room makes household chores a breeze.

16. 2025-08-09
    listed $459,990 Active 1003-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1003 chars)

    Spacious Open Concept Kitchen: Enjoy the freedom of an open layout, perfect for entertaining and family gatherings. Elegant Dining Room: Boasting coffered ceilings and bay windows, this space is infused with architectural charm and natural light, making it perfect for memorable gatherings and refined entertaining. Flexible Living Space: A versatile flex space is ideal for a home office, living room, or whatever suits your lifestyle. Loft Area: A versatile loft area upstairs offers endless possibilities, whether it's a cozy reading nook, a game room, or a second living room for relaxation. Large Primary Suite: The primary bedroom is a luxurious retreat, boasting ample space and a private en-suite bathroom with a walk-in shower. Walk-In Closets: Stay organized with his and hers walk-in closets in the primary suite, offering plenty of storage. Upstairs Laundry Room: Say goodbye to hauling laundry up and down stairs. The convenience of an upstairs laundry room makes household chores a breeze.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,889
• − Property taxes: −$8,004
• − Insurance: −$2,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,571
• − Management: −$3,571
• − Depreciation: −$15,523
• Taxable loss: −$18,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,460
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $461,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-09 Listed $459,990 Zillow