5233 Oak Crest Dr · Semmes, AL 36587

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1992 0.91 ac lot Est $155k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cute 3/1 has been remodeled with: fresh paint, newer roof, new kitchen cabinets, new appliances. Sitting at the end of Oak Crest Dr, this house has a huge lot for plenty of privacy. Make an appointment today.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• New kitchen cabinets
• New appliances

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• HUGE LOT
• PLENTY OF PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilmer Elementary School (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #387 of 627 statewide, top 62%, 447 students, 75% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $140k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $154,775
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11223 Old Moffat Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,107 (+8%)	3mo	$172,000	$155	66
5101 Oak Crest Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+9%)	11mo	$90,000	$80	63
11267 Old Moffat Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,066 (+4%)	24mo	$162,000	$152	58
5079 Fairview Highlands Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+9%)	19mo	$95,000	$85	51
11191 Old Moffat Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+13%)	20mo	$174,900	$151	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,160
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $15,750
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36587

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $663/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $300	+0% $260	+5% $220	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $205	+0% $260	+5% $315	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $296	base $260	+0.5pp $224	+1.0pp $187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11297 Old Moffat Rd Wilmer, AL	3.0	1.5	1128	$1,500	$1.33	21d	1	0.27mi
5178 Fairview Highland Dr Wilmer, AL	3.0	1.5	1064	$1,295	$1.22	21d	1	0.31mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $139,900 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   statusdays on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
11. 2026-04-13
    price $139,900
12. 2026-03-27
    price $149,900
13. 2026-03-10
    price $159,900
14. 2026-02-23
    price $164,900
15. 2026-02-10
    listed $174,900 Active
16. 2025-11-20
    soldstatus $69,000
17. 2025-03-14
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$663
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $859
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$206
• After-tax cash flow: $2,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,039

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.70%
• Current HPI: 282.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+27.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $139,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $149,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $159,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $164,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-10 Listed $174,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $663 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.