12406 49th St E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$430,477

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,005 sqft · Land · 135 Days on market

Built 2025 6,215 sqft lot $129/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Glades with a West Indies exterior. This stunning home located in the sought-after gated community of Windwater in Parrish, FL. This exceptional property offers 2,005 square feet of elegant living space, featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. As you step inside, you'll immediately notice the open and inviting floor plan. Enhanced by the beautiful Carrara Cove 17x17 #100 (stacked) tile that flows through the main living areas. The kitchen is a chef's dream, showcasing Barnett Duraform Linen cabinets, Exquisite Quartz Frost White countertops, providing both functionality and style. All stainless steel Whirlpool appliances are included. The spacious master suite

Key facts

• Gated community
• Carrara cove tile
• Open floor plan

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CARRARA COVE TILE
• QUARTZ FROST WHITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $129); HOA includes pool and recreational facilities; Community amenities: park, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights, gated; Pets allowed; Association requires fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x20) with garage door opener
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion April 2026); One story; Faces west; PD-MU zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Mattamy Homes (Glades West Indies model)
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Pond view; Pool (association); Level lot; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; In-wall pest/guard system; Walk-in closet(s); Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-683 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $306,399 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.80%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-122,134
• Equity at exit: $64,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-196,589
• Equity at exit: $37,220

Cash invested: $120,534 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$538 /mo · $6,457/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,929

Max offer price $331,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-535	+0% $-683	+5% $-832	+10% $-981
Rent	-10% $-925	-5% $-804	+0% $-683	+5% $-562	+10% $-441
Rate	-1.0pp $-467	-0.5pp $-574	base $-683	+0.5pp $-795	+1.0pp $-908

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,619
• Closing costs: $12,914
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12352 49th St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2209	$2,750	$1.24	25d	1	0.06mi
13019 Bluff Oak Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,975	$1.38	17d	1	0.52mi
13031 Bluff Oak Way Parrish, FL	5.0	2.5	2489	$2,649	$1.06	25d	1	0.55mi
13114 Cedar Elm Ln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1980	$3,000	$1.52	25d	1	0.60mi
3775 Manorwood Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$3,300	$1.56	17d	1	0.63mi
4213 Berkeley Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,485	$1.42	3d	1	0.75mi
3704 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2810	$3,600	$1.28	25d	1	0.93mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$3,000	$1.32	22d	1	0.94mi
3511 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	13d	1	0.97mi
11639 Old Florida Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1692	$2,350	$1.39	21d	1	1.04mi
11764 Shirburn Cir Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,526	$1.57	5d	1	1.11mi
11479 Walden Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2408	$2,849	$1.18	25d	1	1.21mi
2910 122nd Ter E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$3,300	$1.80	25d	1	1.28mi
11465 Summit Rock Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2434	$2,975	$1.22	25d	1	1.35mi
6969 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	12d	1	1.35mi
6915 Indus Valley Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2461	$2,695	$1.10	12d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $430,477 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,477 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,477 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,477 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,477 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,477 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,477 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $430,477 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,477 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $430,477 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $430,477 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,477 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,477 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-03-14
    price $430,477
15. 2026-02-04
    listed $439,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,113
• − Property taxes: −$6,457
• − Insurance: −$2,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,941
• − Management: −$2,941
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$12,523
• Taxable loss: −$15,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $430,477 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $439,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid