4309 31st St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$144,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1952 7,950 sqft lot $108/sqft · 31% below area Est $209k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4309 31st Street -- a beautifully updated home in a convenient central Lubbock location. Currently rented through 4/31/2027 for $1,200/mo. This recently remodeled property offers a functional layout with fresh, modern finishes, making it a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Inside, you'll immediately notice the new vinyl plank flooring, all-new interior paint, and a bright, welcoming living space filled with natural light. The updated kitchen features new cabinets and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating an easy, comfortable setup for everyday living and entertaining. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds warmth and comfort, while the spacious bedroom layout offers flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Outside, the backyard provides plenty of room to relax, garden, or entertain, with space to personalize to your liking. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and just minutes from Texas Tech, this home delivers both accessibility and value. Whether you're looking for a move-in-ready home or a strong addition to your investment portfolio, 4309 31st Street is a fantastic opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Owner is open to owner financing with a 10% down payment.

Key facts

• 7,950 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1952

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $144,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$209,024) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($523/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11979% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,958 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,024
• List price: $144,950
• Delta: -30.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-17,254
• Equity at exit: $21,613

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,448
• Equity at exit: $12,533

Cash invested: $40,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,709/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $144,950

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $85	+0% $44	+5% $3	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $-11	+0% $44	+5% $98	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $80	base $44	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,238
• Closing costs: $4,348
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	14d	1	0.06mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.12mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	44d	1	0.17mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	22d	1	0.22mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.23mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.26mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.27mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	14d	1	0.28mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	22d	1	0.32mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	0.33mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	22d	1	0.33mi
3813 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,295	$1.27	22d	1	0.38mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.42mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	14d	7	0.42mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.44mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	0.46mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	0.47mi
3807 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	14d	1	0.49mi
3813 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,400	$0.95	14d	1	0.51mi
3709 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,400	$1.20	22d	1	0.53mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.58mi
3620 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,200	$1.05	22d	1	0.58mi
3714 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,175	$1.31	45d	1	0.59mi
3618 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	44d	1	0.59mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	44d	1	0.60mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	22d	1	0.63mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	22d	1	0.64mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	22d	1	0.66mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.67mi
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	22d	1	0.67mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	44d	1	0.70mi
2501 Louisville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,099	$1.06	44d	1	0.71mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.72mi
3505 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	14d	1	0.79mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	14d	1	0.80mi
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.82mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	14d	1	0.84mi
3502 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,295	$1.12	44d	1	0.87mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	0.87mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   historical $1,200
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $1,200
3. 2026-04-07
   listed $144,950 Active 1288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

   Welcome to 4309 31st Street -- a beautifully updated home in a convenient central Lubbock location. Currently rented through 4/31/2027 for $1,200/mo. This recently remodeled property offers a functional layout with fresh, modern finishes, making it a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. Inside, you'll immediately notice the new vinyl plank flooring, all-new interior paint, and a bright, welcoming living space filled with natural light. The updated kitchen features new cabinets and flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating an easy, comfortable setup for everyday living and entertaining. Brand new carpet in all bedrooms adds warmth and comfort, while the spacious bedroom layout offers flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. Outside, the backyard provides plenty of room to relax, garden, or entertain, with space to personalize to your liking. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and just minutes from Texas Tech, this home delivers both accessibility and value. Whether you're looking for a move-in-ready home or a strong addition to your investment portfolio, 4309 31st Street is a fantastic opportunity. Schedule your private showing today! Owner is open to owner financing with a 10% down payment.

4. 2025-08-20
   soldstatus
5. 1999-07-09
   soldstatus
6. 1997-03-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,709 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,709 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,709
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$4,217
• Taxable loss: −$1,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$447
• After-tax cash flow: $970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Rental Removed $1,200 LARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,200 LARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $144,950 LARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,709 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.