1282 GA Hwy 292 · Lyons, GA 30436

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2017 1.00 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This like new home sits on one acre. Built in 2017, this home is a 16x76 single wide Schult Advantage Plus in great condition. Split floor plan with open living/dining/kitchen with large island. Master bedroom has walk-in closet and oversized bathroom with dual sinks. On opposite end you will find 2 more bedrooms and full bath. Community water at approx. $35/mo. Shared driveway to the property.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 69 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#330 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Toombs County (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Toombs Central Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #227 of 1,228 statewide, top 19%, 502 students, 86% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Toombs County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Toombs County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Toombs County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.33%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $92,645
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $255,669
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30436

• Home prices YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $388	+0% $343	+5% $299	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $281	+0% $343	+5% $406	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $376	base $343	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-02
   listed $129,900 New
4. 2023-11-28
   soldstatus $110,000 Sold 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This like new home sits on one acre. Built in 2017, this home is a 16x76 single wide Schult Advantage Plus in great condition. Split floor plan with open living/dining/kitchen with large island. Master bedroom has walk-in closet and oversized bathroom with dual sinks. On opposite end you will find 2 more bedrooms and full bath. Community water at approx. $35/mo. Shared driveway to the property.

5. 2023-10-10
   status Under Contract 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This like new home sits on one acre. Built in 2017, this home is a 16x76 single wide Schult Advantage Plus in great condition. Split floor plan with open living/dining/kitchen with large island. Master bedroom has walk-in closet and oversized bathroom with dual sinks. On opposite end you will find 2 more bedrooms and full bath. Community water at approx. $35/mo. Shared driveway to the property.

6. 2023-08-15
   price $139,000 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This like new home sits on one acre. Built in 2017, this home is a 16x76 single wide Schult Advantage Plus in great condition. Split floor plan with open living/dining/kitchen with large island. Master bedroom has walk-in closet and oversized bathroom with dual sinks. On opposite end you will find 2 more bedrooms and full bath. Community water at approx. $35/mo. Shared driveway to the property.

7. 2023-05-24
   listed $149,500 New 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This like new home sits on one acre. Built in 2017, this home is a 16x76 single wide Schult Advantage Plus in great condition. Split floor plan with open living/dining/kitchen with large island. Master bedroom has walk-in closet and oversized bathroom with dual sinks. On opposite end you will find 2 more bedrooms and full bath. Community water at approx. $35/mo. Shared driveway to the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $3,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toombs County
• NCES district ID: 1305040
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,288
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6922
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #17443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,547

Population outlook (Toombs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,784 people
• By 2030: 26,312 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 25,219 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,733 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,107 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 12,922 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Toombs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.7) · D 24.5% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.1pp · 2024: -50.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+46.9 2012: R+40.5 2008: R+38.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 257.7921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2023-11-28 Sold (MLS) $110,000 GAMLS
• 2023-10-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $139,000 GAMLS
• 2023-05-24 Listed $149,500 GAMLS