20055 Or-62 #42 · Shady Cove, OR 97539

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Land public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1983 $57/sqft · 38% below area Est $89k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice dbl-wd, 2/2, located in Leisure Days Mobile Park of Shady Cove. The park is a clean, well-kept senior park with green common areas along the Rogue River offering picnic areas and park-grills. Shady Cove is a Rogue Valley destination for river activities and access to Diamond Lake and Crater Lake.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1983
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not currently rented; Short-term rental permit not applicable
• Financial info: Land lease charged monthly
• HOA & community: CCRs apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway
• Security: No audio or video surveillance on premises
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); One level; Built in 1983
• Construction: Concrete perimeter and pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Located in a park (in-park mobile home); May remain in park; On leased land; CCRs apply

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Hot water heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet, laminate and vinyl flooring; Living room; Dining room; Second primary bedroom (additional primary); Primary bedroom; Laundry room; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 2.2% in Shady Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#156 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Point SD 9 (suburban): math 26% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #134 of 183 in OR (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shady Cove School (237 students, 70% FRL); Eagle Point High School (999 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.50%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,639
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -38.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $10,293
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $34,394
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97539

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $384/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $313	+0% $297	+5% $282	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $244	+0% $297	+5% $351	+10% $404
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $311	base $297	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Indian Trail Ct Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,350	$1.24	22d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $54,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $54,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $54,900 Active 528-char remark
20. 2024-06-21
    soldstatus $39,000 Closed 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Nice dbl-wd, 2/2, located in Leisure Days Mobile Park of Shady Cove. The park is a clean, well-kept senior park with green common areas along the Rogue River offering picnic areas and park-grills. Shady Cove is a Rogue Valley destination for river activities and access to Diamond Lake and Crater Lake.

21. 2024-06-10
    status Pending 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Nice dbl-wd, 2/2, located in Leisure Days Mobile Park of Shady Cove. The park is a clean, well-kept senior park with green common areas along the Rogue River offering picnic areas and park-grills. Shady Cove is a Rogue Valley destination for river activities and access to Diamond Lake and Crater Lake.

22. 2024-04-13
    listed $39,900 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Nice dbl-wd, 2/2, located in Leisure Days Mobile Park of Shady Cove. The park is a clean, well-kept senior park with green common areas along the Rogue River offering picnic areas and park-grills. Shady Cove is a Rogue Valley destination for river activities and access to Diamond Lake and Crater Lake.

23. 2024-04-06
    historical
24. 2023-12-27
    price $49,900
25. 2023-12-22
    status Active
26. 2023-12-07
    status Pending
27. 2023-12-05
    historical
28. 2023-10-12
    price $59,900
29. 2023-09-14
    price $69,000
30. 2023-08-02
    listed $75,000 Active
31. 2013-05-16
    historical
32. 2013-04-04
    listed $14,000
33. 2012-10-31
    soldstatus $8,000
34. 2012-04-02
    listed $9,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$384
• − Insurance: −$5,393
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $3,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$758
• After-tax cash flow: $2,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Point SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4104500
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,834
• Composite: 33.13/100
• National rank: #10630
• State rank: #134 of 183 in OR

Livability — Shady Cove

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #9143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Cove, OR
• Population (ZIP): 3,349

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 8% Danish 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.55%
• Current HPI: 281.9845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+454.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $54,900 MLSCO
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $39,000 MLSCO
• 2024-06-10 Pending — MLSCO
• 2024-04-13 Listed $39,900 MLSCO
• 2024-04-06 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2023-12-27 Price Changed $49,900 MLSCO
• 2023-12-22 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2023-12-07 Pending — MLSCO
• 2023-12-05 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2023-10-12 Price Changed $59,900 MLSCO
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $69,000 MLSCO
• 2023-08-02 Listed $75,000 MLSCO
• 2013-05-16 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2013-04-04 Listed $14,000 MLSCO
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) $8,000 MLSCO
• 2012-04-02 Listed $9,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $384 · +53.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.