600 Carroll St · Kerens, TX 75144

$174,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,677 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1967 0.56 ac lot Est $159k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! This home is ready for your vision and updates. Features solid layout, spacious lot, and excellent potential to renovate, customize, or add value. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home. A home with lots of pecan trees secluded, a must see.

Key facts

• Excellent potential
• Spacious lot
• Pecan trees

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• PECAN TREES
• EXCELLENT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No known restrictions; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (24' wide x 22' deep, 8' height); Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway, off-street and paved parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Phone available; Well; Asphalt access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Attached property; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1967; Preowned
• Exterior features: Outbuilding and storage structure on property; Partially wooded vegetation; Sandy loam soil; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (13 x 13); Bedroom on main level (13 x 11); Bedroom on main level (11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Central heating with fireplace(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Paneling; Other built-in features; Two living areas; One dining area; Total room count: 5; One level
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections not explicitly listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.6% in Kerens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#866 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kerens ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #495 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,315
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 NE 2nd St	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	3mo	$134,900	$84	59
410 S Donaldson Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-13%)	15mo	$189,999	$131	54
510 SE 2nd St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+14%)	23mo	$183,000	$95	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $58,805
• Equity at exit: $105,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $164,421
• Equity at exit: $187,906

Cash invested: $48,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75144

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,910/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $174,800

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $244	+0% $194	+5% $145	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $127	+0% $194	+5% $261	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $239	base $194	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,700
• Closing costs: $5,244
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 SW 3rd St Kerens, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,800 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,800 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,800 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,800 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,800 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,800 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,800 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,800 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,800 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,800 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,800 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,800 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,800 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,800 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,800 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,800 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $174,800 Active
18. 2007-04-17
    soldstatus
19. 2003-03-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,199 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,289/yr (+$107/mo · 67.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,792
• − Property taxes: −$1,910
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$5,085
• Taxable loss: −$525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825530
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,364
• Composite: 30.81/100
• National rank: #6142
• State rank: #495 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerens

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #866
• US rank: #15598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,798

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 236.2915
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $174,800 NTREIS
• 2007-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,910 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.