9215 Burch Eagle Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$213,890

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $167/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ACMI; Annual association fee of $2,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $213,890 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $258,278.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,477 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,278
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9227 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	2mo	$244,990	$187	82
9235 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$255,990	$176	78
9239 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	0mo	$259,990	$178	77
9223 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$259,990	$178	76
9214 Speckled Trout Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$271,990	$209	74
9307 Golden Dorado Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$278,990	$174	74
9203 Speckled Trout Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	3mo	$273,990	$210	72
9311 Long Fin Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	2mo	$280,990	$175	69
5402 Peacock Bass Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$284,990	$178	69
5702 Goosander Land Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+13%)	2mo	$303,990	$186	56
9218 Burch Eagle Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	0mo	$268,990	$162	52
9219 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	1mo	$268,990	$162	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-68,675
• Equity at exit: $38,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-102,061
• Equity at exit: $22,331

Cash invested: $72,318 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,354
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,874/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $203,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-198	-5% $-287	+0% $-376	+5% $-465	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-534	-5% $-455	+0% $-376	+5% $-297	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-246	-0.5pp $-310	base $-376	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,570
• Closing costs: $7,748
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,265	$1.37	0d	1	0.70mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	25d	1	0.86mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,073	$1.35	18d	1	0.86mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	45d	1	0.87mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	6d	1	0.90mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	19d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $213,890 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 638-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,890 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,890 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,890 Active 18 DOM

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

6. 2026-06-15
   price $213,890 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,390 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $222,390 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $229,990 Active 11 DOM

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,990 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,990 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,990 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,990 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,990 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,990 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $243,940 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-01
    price $240,240 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $240,240 618-char remark
19. 2026-04-28
    price $255,990 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-04-28
    price $255,990 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

21. 2026-04-22
    price $249,990 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

22. 2026-04-20
    price $249,990 618-char remark
23. 2026-04-14
    price $242,940 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

24. 2026-04-13
    price $242,940 618-char remark
25. 2026-04-13
    listed $255,990 Active 618-char remark
26. 2026-04-11
    listed $255,990 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,468
• − Property taxes: −$3,874
• − Insurance: −$1,291
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$7,514
• Taxable loss: −$9,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Baytown, TX, is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and value to the kitchen space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and value to the kitchen space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $213,890 Zillow
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $213,890 HARMLS
• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $222,390 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $222,390 HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $235,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-29 Listed $235,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $240,190 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $243,940 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $243,940 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $240,240 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $240,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $249,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $242,940 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $242,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $255,990 Zillow