38035 Post Office Rd Unit 21B · Prairieville, LA 70769

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · Condo · 7 Days on market

Built 2005 $382/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Prairieville condo features a plantation style balcony, overlooking the neighborhood pond and beautiful greenery, and sits in an amazing location! The upstairs unit features a soaring cathedral ceiling and 3 sets of French doors out to the balcony, an open floor plan, with fresh paint in the spacious living room, breakfast area and kitchen, which features a breakfast bar and plenty of cabinets and counter space, 3 bedrooms with new carpet, great closet space, plentiful natural light flowing throughout, 2024 HVAC units and a 2025 roof! The bathrooms feature crisp white cabinetry and countertops and the primary features a separate shower and soaking tub! Look forward to enjoying the neighborhood pool, relaxing on the balcony and having all the benefits of this convenient location!

Key facts

• Neighborhood pond
• French doors
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• PLANTATION STYLE BALCONY
• NEIGHBORHOOD POND
• SOARING CATHEDRAL CEILING
• FRENCH DOORS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PLENTIFUL NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Arlington Plantation
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Community pool; Gated community; HOA provides maintenance and management; HOA covers grounds maintenance, insurance, and trash; Association fee $4,584 annually (about $382/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors; Gated community
• Utilities: Cable connected
• Home design: Condominium (attached residential); Attached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Balcony; Lighting; Patio (covered); Porch (covered); Shed(s); Waterfront / lakefront; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Flooring: Tile; Ceramic tile; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Breakfast bar; Crown molding; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $170k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.47%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,942
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,605
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70769

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,623/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$382
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $305	+0% $257	+5% $208	+10% $160
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $170	+0% $257	+5% $343	+10% $430
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $300	base $257	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38035 Post Office Rd Unit 4B Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,000	$1.40	44d	1	0.02mi
15279 Oak Heritage Ave Prairieville, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1331	$2,243	$1.69	14d	7	0.54mi
38159 Willow Lake East Ave Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,000	$1.10	44d	1	1.19mi
17120 Willow Oak Aly Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.5	1293	$1,950	$1.51	44d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $382 · $4,584/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $170,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,623 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,623 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,623
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$4,584
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairieville, LA
• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,278
• Household income: $109,404
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.56%
• Current HPI: 144.2267
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+4.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $170,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-06-11 Listed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-11-03 Listed $1,350 GBRMLS
• 2016-05-27 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-05-06 Listed $1,400 GBRMLS
• 2015-07-10 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2015-05-21 Listed $1,350 GBRMLS
• 2006-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-16 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $165,900 GBRMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $165,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-08-28 Listed $162,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-08-28 Listed $162,900 GBRMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,623 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.