4000 Flynn St #33 · Bellingham, WA 98229

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured · 177 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $536k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your home is here, enjoy this brand new 4 bed 2 bath home with 3 huge new decks, this home has a living room and family room, this is an energy star rated home, very efficient appliances and heating, black and stainless appliances, located by Whatcom Falls and Blodel Park and Lake Whatcom, walk to the bus stop, this is the largest and newest home in the park, come tour it today.

Key facts

• Energy star rated
• New decks
• Lake whatcom

Tags

• NEW DECKS
• ENERGY STAR RATED
• EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• BLACK AND STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• LOCATED BY WHATCOM FALLS
• LAKE WHATCOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains; Property condition: Very good
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Mill Wheel Park (approximately 155 homes); Park amenities include clubhouse and common area; Park approved for sale; Land lease of $600/month

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (paid through space rent); Sewer paid through space rent; Puget Sound Energy power; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home (Double wide); One level; South-facing entry
• Construction: Cement plank siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation with tie downs; Built by CAVCO (model 310AF); Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Cement planked exterior; Patio/porch/deck; Walk-in closet; Cul-de-sac lot; Dead-end street; Paved street; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Family room; Living room; Kitchen with eating space; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.0% in Bellingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#102 in WA, #1,947 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Bellingham School District (urban): math 47% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 291 in WA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $536,382
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4026 Fir St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	22mo	$536,800	$301	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,698
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $17,139
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98229

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $491	+0% $387	+5% $284	+10% $180
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $264	+0% $387	+5% $510	+10% $633
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $464	base $387	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2820 E Crestline Dr Bellingham, WA	4.0	2.0	2220	$3,750	$1.69	22d	1	1.13mi
2251 Michigan St Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,300	$1.79	14d	1	1.21mi
3212 Heights Pl Bellingham, WA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,900	$1.61	22d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 158 DOM
17. 2025-12-23
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,990
• − Management: −$2,990
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $4,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellingham School District
• NCES district ID: 5300420
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,678
• Composite: 48.49/100
• National rank: #4632
• State rank: #106 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bellingham

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #1947

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellingham, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• City population: 130,296
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 33,298
• Household income: $90,945
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 413.1478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $300,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $255 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.