341 W Camino Penasco Unit B · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 64 Days on market

Built 1964 $372/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Worry-free living awaits in this charming and immaculately maintained villa located in the heart of Green Valley's desirable retirement community. This condo offers a clean, neutral canvas ready for its next owner, featuring newer carpeting, a recently replaced roof, and close, convenient parking. One of the home's standout features is the generously sized north-facing front courtyard-providing cool, shaded outdoor enjoyment year-round with no direct summer sun, ideal for relaxing or entertaining in comfort. The HOA truly does it all, offering exceptional value by covering exterior maintenance, roof repairs and replacement, HVAC and hot water heater maintenance, water, sewer, garbage collec

Key facts

• Newer carpeting
• Convenient parking
• $372 HOA

Tags

• NORTH FACING FRONT COURTYARD
• NEWER CARPETING
• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• CONVENIENT PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee; Association amenities include pool, spa, tennis courts, fitness center, recreation center, athletic facilities, sidewalks, park, pickleball, laundry, and maintenance; HOA fee covers air conditioning/heating, blanket insurance policy, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, pest control, roof repair and replacement, sewer, street maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); Carport (1 space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Sewer connected; Phone service connected
• Home design: Condominium; One level; Level-accessible
• Construction: Brick construction; Built-up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Stucco finish and masonry fencing; Decorative gravel landscaping; Subdivided lot that borders common area; North/South exposure; Paved road access; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range; Gas oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas pack heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Exhaust fan; Disposal; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (community association amenity)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($957/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-5,610
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $18,452
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$372
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $111	+0% $80	+5% $49	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $26	+0% $80	+5% $133	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $103	base $80	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.15mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.16mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.17mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.20mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.20mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	18d	1	0.21mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.21mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.21mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.22mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.24mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.24mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $372 · $4,464/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashexterior maint.roof
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Active
2. 2026-04-03
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $90,000 Active
4. 2026-03-01
   historical
5. 2025-12-18
   listed $100,000 Active
6. 2025-11-29
   historical
7. 2025-09-18
   status Active
8. 2025-09-08
   historical Active Contingent
9. 2025-05-23
   listed $105,000 Active
10. 2025-05-01
    historical
11. 2025-01-28
    price $115,000
12. 2024-10-10
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − HOA: −$4,464
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$54
• After-tax cash flow: $1,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-24 Listed $90,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-18 Listed $100,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-08 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-23 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $115,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-10 Listed $135,000 MLSSAZ