6394 Lolly Bay Loop NE · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1990 4,500 sqft lot $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the 55+ community of Brookhaven Village, this fee-simple manufactured home offers 1,620 square feet of living space with a functional layout and recent updates. Built in 1990, the home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with vinyl and carpet flooring throughout. The interior includes a spacious living and dining area, an interior laundry closet, and ample storage. An attached storage room provides additional space and may be suitable for use as a workshop, hobby area, or general storage. The home also features a covered and screened porch, offering a comfortable space to enjoy the outdoors. Recent improvements include a roof replaced in 2023 and an HVAC system replaced in 2022.

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• ATTACHED STORAGE ROOM
• COVERED AND SCREENED PORCH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees approximately $408; Living area reported as 1,620 sq ft; building area total reported as 2,460 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Brookhaven Village HOA with monthly fee of $34; HOA includes pool and recreational facilities; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Deed-restricted senior community; buyer approval required; pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Double wide; One story; Facing south; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding and other materials; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.1 acre (50 x 90)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $180k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,207
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,558
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,607/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,607

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $360	+0% $309	+5% $258	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $230	+0% $309	+5% $388	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $355	base $309	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	15d	1	0.70mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.71mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	24d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,900 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    price $179,900
15. 2026-04-14
    status Active
16. 2026-04-04
    historical
17. 2026-03-03
    price $189,900
18. 2025-12-23
    listed $200,000 Active
19. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus $45,000
20. 1996-05-06
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,607
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$221
• After-tax cash flow: $3,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+236.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1996-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,607 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.