123 N 40th St · Louisville, KY 40212

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,401 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1925 5,700 sqft lot Est $199k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the cozy Shawnee neighborhood of Louisville, KY, you'll find this lovely single-family home at 123 N 40th St. Built in 1925, it has classic charm and offers a comfortable living space of around 1,513 sqft, with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Situated on a 5700 sqft lot, there's ample room for outdoor activities or even a little gardening if you fancy. This home provides a simple and inviting atmosphere, perfect for those seeking a laid-back lifestyle in the 40212 ZIP code of Louisville, KY.

Key facts

• Fully fenced-in yard
• Open layout
• 5,700 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• FULLY FENCED-IN YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: OAKS
• HOA & community: No association fee listed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Cape Cod style; 2 stories; Built in 1925
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the second floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor; One bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; At least one full bathroom on the second floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; One fireplace (on first level); 14 total rooms; 4 closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement; Basement contains additional utility/other spaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $180k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,206 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,283
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 S 40th St	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,458 (+2%)	8mo	$184,500	$75	77
123 S 39th St	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,159 (-10%)	6mo	$215,000	$100	68
112 S 41st St	0.13mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (-12%)	5mo	$175,000	$83	62
321 S 41st St	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,440 (+2%)	20mo	$190,000	$78	60
118 S 42nd St	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,323 (-3%)	21mo	$144,900	$62	60
240 S 42nd St	0.38mi	4/1.0	2,136 (-11%)	15mo	$185,000	$87	48
318 Glendora Ave	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,536 (+6%)	16mo	$220,000	$87	44
4007 Vermont Ave	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-14%)	4mo	$197,500	$96	43
3940 Northwestern Pkwy	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,256 (-6%)	17mo	$195,000	$86	40
4557 Southwestern Pkwy	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,051 (-15%)	4mo	$145,000	$71	30
4002 Northwestern Pkwy	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,048 (-15%)	18mo	$168,000	$82	24
4334 Vermont Ave	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,704 (+13%)	18mo	$208,000	$77	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $102,121
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $287,266
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,168/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3909 W Broadway Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	15d	1	1.02mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	2d	1	1.37mi
2319 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,300	$0.79	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $179,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,547 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 32.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,865
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,168
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,509
• − Management: −$1,509
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$368
• After-tax cash flow: $1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+300.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $179,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $92,679 Public Records
• 2024-07-05 Sold (MLS) $92,679 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-05-31 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-05-29 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-22 Price Changed $102,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-22 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $120,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-04-04 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-03-27 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-03-18 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-03-07 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-16 Price Changed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-06 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-08 Listed $84,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-02-26 Listed $21,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-12-13 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2005-09-13 Listed $44,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,168 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.