17221 SE 95th Street Rd · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32179

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2002 4.00 ac lot Est $282k · 41% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bed/2 ba mobile is situated 4 partially cleared acres. The property is nice with a small man made pond in the front & perimeter fenced. The home needs some TLC, the a/c is missing but its roomy & has a good floor plan. There is a portion of an old pole barn on the property, as well as a small animal structure in the back. * * Appliances will convey if present at closing. * *

Key facts

• Cleared homesite
• Water views
• 4 acre property

Tags

• 4 ACRE PROPERTY
• WATER VIEWS
• CLEARED HOMESITE
• FULL ELECTRIC SERVICE
• WELL
• SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.3% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,900/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $165k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,686
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8821 SE 180th Avenue Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,394 (+8%)	2mo	$225,000	$161	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,136
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $25,592
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32179

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,549/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $401	+0% $354	+5% $308	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $279	+0% $354	+5% $429	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $396	base $354	+0.5pp $312	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2012-08-09
   soldstatus $35,000 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This 4 bed/2 ba mobile is situated 4 partially cleared acres. The property is nice with a small man made pond in the front & perimeter fenced. The home needs some TLC, the a/c is missing but its roomy & has a good floor plan. There is a portion of an old pole barn on the property, as well as a small animal structure in the back. * * Appliances will convey if present at closing. * *

4. 2012-06-15
   listed $49,000 398-char remark

   Show marketing remark (398 chars)

   This 4 bed/2 ba mobile is situated 4 partially cleared acres. The property is nice with a small man made pond in the front & perimeter fenced. The home needs some TLC, the a/c is missing but its roomy & has a good floor plan. There is a portion of an old pole barn on the property, as well as a small animal structure in the back. * * Appliances will convey if present at closing. * *

5. 1999-03-23
   soldstatus $12,000
6. 1995-09-15
   soldstatus $13,300
7. 1995-09-15
   soldstatus $13,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,549 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,549
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $3,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,318
• Household income: $46,512
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.21%
• Current HPI: 242.0408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1140.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-09 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-15 Listed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $13,300 Public Records
• 1995-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $13,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,549 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.