625 Lakeview Dr · Midfield, TX 77414

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1999 0.51 ac lot $106/sqft · 346% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on three lots in El Dorado Estates. This property offers extra space and flexibility with multiple lots included. Recent updates include new siding and new carpet, providing a fresh interior feel. A solid option for buyers looking for a home with room to grow or invest.

Key facts

• New siding
• Three lots
• New carpet

Tags

• THREE LOTS
• NEW SIDING
• NEW CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tidehaven ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #127 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,455
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 211.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Lakeview Dr #1	0.14mi	2/1.0	976 (+9%)	14mo	$39,500	$40	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-6,878
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $5,841
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,537/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $156	+0% $129	+5% $102	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $89	+0% $129	+5% $169	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $153	base $129	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-01-19
    listed $95,000 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on three lots in El Dorado Estates. This property offers extra space and flexibility with multiple lots included. Recent updates include new siding and new carpet, providing a fresh interior feel. A solid option for buyers looking for a home with room to grow or invest.

17. 2020-11-24
    soldstatus
18. 2020-11-24
    soldstatus
19. 2019-12-31
    historical
20. 2019-01-24
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,537
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $44
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $1,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tidehaven ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842810
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,006
• Composite: 45.73/100
• National rank: #2572
• State rank: #127 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $95,000 BCBR
• 2020-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-24 Listed $80,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,537 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.