524 Don Sosteno Rd · Los Lunas, NM 87031

$270,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Other · 168 Days on market

Built 1962 0.37 ac lot $159/sqft · 28% below area Est $376k · 28% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH ONLY This historic home offers a blend of classic NM charm and practical functionality. Upon entry, you're greeted by a warm Kiva fireplace, perfect for chilly NM winters. As you enter further, you'll find the ample-sized kitchen, highlighted by a large walk-in pantry, ideal for storage and everyday use. Adjacent to the home is a separate space with its own entrance, ideal for storage or a possible living space. The property also includes a gated back with backyard access and parking to accommodate multiple vehicles or equipment. One of the standout features is the large workshop outfitted with 220V power, offering excellent potential for projects or hobbies that require a large space. Buyer to verify age & sqft if that's important.

Key facts

• Kiva fireplace
• Large walk-in pantry
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• KIVA FIREPLACE
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• SEPARATE SPACE WITH ENTRANCE
• GATED BACK WITH ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.8% in Los Lunas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,749/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,166
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -28.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,721
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $82,880
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Tierra Verde Loop NW Los Lunas, NM	3.0	3.0	1917	$3,600	$1.88	23d	1	0.99mi
1748 Valle Vista Rd NW Los Lunas, NM	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,125	$1.26	16d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,000 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    listed $270,000 Active 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    CASH ONLY This historic home offers a blend of classic NM charm and practical functionality. Upon entry, you're greeted by a warm Kiva fireplace, perfect for chilly NM winters. As you enter further, you'll find the ample-sized kitchen, highlighted by a large walk-in pantry, ideal for storage and everyday use. Adjacent to the home is a separate space with its own entrance, ideal for storage or a possible living space. The property also includes a gated back with backyard access and parking to accommodate multiple vehicles or equipment. One of the standout features is the large workshop outfitted with 220V power, offering excellent potential for projects or hobbies that require a large space. Buyer to verify age & sqft if that's important.

16. 2024-05-30
    price $274,999
17. 2024-05-03
    price $275,000
18. 2024-04-24
    price $279,500
19. 2024-03-27
    price $279,750
20. 2024-02-29
    price $280,000
21. 2023-09-20
    price $280,000
22. 2022-11-18
    price $299,000
23. 2022-10-03
    price $329,000
24. 2022-09-09
    price $339,000
25. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $3,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Los Lunas

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #12347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 47,514
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listed $270,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $274,999 Southwest MLS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $275,000 Southwest MLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $279,500 Southwest MLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $279,750 Southwest MLS
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $280,000 Southwest MLS
• 2023-09-20 Price Changed $280,000 Southwest MLS
• 2022-11-18 Price Changed $299,000 Southwest MLS
• 2022-10-03 Price Changed $329,000 Southwest MLS
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $339,000 Southwest MLS
• 2016-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $491 · +22.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.