3251 E Rd #99 · Clifton, CO 81520

$72,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2019 4,356 sqft lot Est $65k · 12% over $620/mo HOA · 46% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to #99 at Picture Ranch. This lovely home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor concept, double paned windows, redwood deck, Whirlpool appliances, a storage shed, and a luscious yard. Enjoy the view of the Grand Mesa from the back yard. The front patio looks out to the Colorado National Monument. Enjoy the peaceful, pristine neighborhood. The lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, irrigation water, cable and internet! Book your gatherings at the park's Clubhouse. Come see this newer home!

Key facts

• Open deck
• On-site shed
• Storage shed

Tags

• STORAGE SHED
• OPEN DECK
• ON-SITE SHED
• CLUB HOUSE
• BASKETBALL HOOP
• RV STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $620; HOA includes cable TV and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (Single Wide); Residential single-family use; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Landscaped lot; Paved road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Carpet
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans for cooling; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($29/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Clifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#140 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, commute A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Mountain Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #793 of 966 statewide, top 84%, 469 students, 75% FRL); Mount Garfield Middle School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #164 of 270 statewide, top 61%, 581 students, 64% FRL); Palisade High School (math 35% / reading 57%, grade D-, #138 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,125 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,072
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3251 E Rd #59	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (0%)	9mo	$65,000	$83	77
516 1/2 Friendship Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (-7%)	7mo	$199,112	$274	57
3268 E Rd #34	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (+7%)	22mo	$38,000	$45	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-12,172
• Equity at exit: $10,870

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-12,470
• Equity at exit: $6,303

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81520

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $319/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$620
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,341

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $23	+0% $2	+5% $-18	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-51	+0% $2	+5% $55	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $21	base $2	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3221 Chipeta Ct Apt 3 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,000	$1.02	23d	1	0.38mi
3216 Chipeta Ct Unit 4 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,250	$1.22	23d	1	0.41mi
491 32 1/8 Rd Unit 2 Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	890	$1,200	$1.35	23d	1	0.43mi
492 Coronado Ct Unit A Clifton, CO	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	15d	1	0.46mi
497 Coronado Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,395	$1.28	23d	1	0.49mi
3210 Diamond Ct Unit B Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	23d	1	0.51mi
463 Topaz Dr Unit D Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	23d	1	0.56mi
461 Topaz Dr Unit C Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	23d	1	0.57mi
3238 D 1/4 Rd Clifton, CO	2.0	1.0	952	$2,000	$2.10	15d	1	0.61mi
3197 Hill Ave Unit 3 Grand Junction, CO	2.0	1.0	1022	$1,095	$1.07	23d	1	0.61mi
3252 Villasur Dr Apt B Clifton, CO	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,500	$1.37	23d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $620 · $7,440/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashinternetcablepool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $72,900 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $72,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $72,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $72,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-05-13
   price $72,900
6. 2026-04-24
   price $79,000
7. 2026-03-31
   price $83,500
8. 2026-02-26
   price $85,500
9. 2026-02-03
   price $89,500
10. 2026-01-26
    listed $98,000 Active
11. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus $83,000 Closed 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to #99 at Picture Ranch. This lovely home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor concept, double paned windows, redwood deck, Whirlpool appliances, a storage shed, and a luscious yard. Enjoy the view of the Grand Mesa from the back yard. The front patio looks out to the Colorado National Monument. Enjoy the peaceful, pristine neighborhood. The lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, irrigation water, cable and internet! Book your gatherings at the park's Clubhouse. Come see this newer home!

12. 2024-04-13
    status Pending 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to #99 at Picture Ranch. This lovely home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor concept, double paned windows, redwood deck, Whirlpool appliances, a storage shed, and a luscious yard. Enjoy the view of the Grand Mesa from the back yard. The front patio looks out to the Colorado National Monument. Enjoy the peaceful, pristine neighborhood. The lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, irrigation water, cable and internet! Book your gatherings at the park's Clubhouse. Come see this newer home!

13. 2024-04-10
    price $83,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to #99 at Picture Ranch. This lovely home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor concept, double paned windows, redwood deck, Whirlpool appliances, a storage shed, and a luscious yard. Enjoy the view of the Grand Mesa from the back yard. The front patio looks out to the Colorado National Monument. Enjoy the peaceful, pristine neighborhood. The lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, irrigation water, cable and internet! Book your gatherings at the park's Clubhouse. Come see this newer home!

14. 2024-04-06
    price $84,500 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to #99 at Picture Ranch. This lovely home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor concept, double paned windows, redwood deck, Whirlpool appliances, a storage shed, and a luscious yard. Enjoy the view of the Grand Mesa from the back yard. The front patio looks out to the Colorado National Monument. Enjoy the peaceful, pristine neighborhood. The lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, irrigation water, cable and internet! Book your gatherings at the park's Clubhouse. Come see this newer home!

15. 2024-03-30
    listed $89,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome to #99 at Picture Ranch. This lovely home has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, an open floor concept, double paned windows, redwood deck, Whirlpool appliances, a storage shed, and a luscious yard. Enjoy the view of the Grand Mesa from the back yard. The front patio looks out to the Colorado National Monument. Enjoy the peaceful, pristine neighborhood. The lot rent includes water, sewer, trash, irrigation water, cable and internet! Book your gatherings at the park's Clubhouse. Come see this newer home!

16. 2020-10-15
    historical
17. 2009-12-04
    listed $34,900
18. 2009-03-10
    soldstatus $41,000
19. 2009-02-25
    listed $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $319 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $401 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$319
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − HOA: −$7,440
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable loss: −$782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$188
• After-tax cash flow: $216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesa County Valley School District No. 51
• NCES district ID: 0804350
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,189
• Composite: 27.83/100
• National rank: #6884
• State rank: #43 of 86 in CO

Livability — Clifton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clifton, CO
• County: Mesa County · 143,088 people
• City population: 12,892
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• Population (ZIP): 12,892
• Household income: $50,283
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 362.0

Population outlook (Mesa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,000 people
• By 2030: 154,479 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 155,257 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 153,384 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 144,735 · -5.4%
• By 2100: 123,825 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mesa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 36.6% · R 61.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -29.5pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+28.0 2016: R+36.3 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+29.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.00%
• Current HPI: 342.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Grand Junction, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+67.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $72,900 GJARA
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $79,000 GJARA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $83,500 GJARA
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $85,500 GJARA
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $89,500 GJARA
• 2026-01-26 Listed $98,000 GJARA
• 2024-04-30 Sold (MLS) $83,000 GJARA
• 2024-04-13 Pending — GJARA
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $83,000 GJARA
• 2024-04-06 Price Changed $84,500 GJARA
• 2024-03-30 Listed $89,000 GJARA
• 2020-10-15 Listing Removed — cren
• 2009-12-04 Listed $34,900 cren
• 2009-03-10 Sold (MLS) $41,000 cren
• 2009-02-25 Listed $43,500 cren

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · +326.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.