536 Shepherd Ave · New York, NY 11208

$1,475,000

12 bd · 4.8 ba · 3,600 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1901

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

brick, standalone house, garage and storage room out back, 12 total bedrooms

Key facts

• Storage room
• Garage
• Standalone house

Tags

• STANDALONE HOUSE
• GARAGE
• STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional amenities available
• Financial info: No financial details listed
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details listed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: No utility details listed
• Home design: Built in 1901; Property type details not provided; Story count and facing direction not provided; Entry level not provided
• Construction: Living area approximately 3600 (unit not displayed)
• Exterior features: Located in the East New York neighborhood

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen details available
• Bedrooms: No bedroom details available
• Flooring: No flooring details available
• Bathrooms: No bathroom details available
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details available
• Interior features: No interior feature details available
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.48M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive. Per door: $648/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.43M (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.43M (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $14,336/mo this rent would consume 277% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 7574% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $413k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $520k; list at $1.48M implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,433,600 (2.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-27,863
• Equity at exit: $219,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $390,065
• Equity at exit: $127,531

Cash invested: $413,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11208

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 34.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,735
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,600/yr
• Insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,011
• Net cashflow: $2,592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,054

Max offer price $1,475,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,427	-5% $3,010	+0% $2,592	+5% $2,175	+10% $1,758
Rent	-10% $1,460	-5% $2,026	+0% $2,592	+5% $3,159	+10% $3,725
Rate	-1.0pp $3,335	-0.5pp $2,968	base $2,592	+0.5pp $2,210	+1.0pp $1,821

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	—	$14,336
Total (4 units)			$14,336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $368,750
• Closing costs: $44,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,475,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    remarks 76-char remark
11. 2026-05-31
    listed $1,475,000 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,600 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,764 · $1,230/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,164/yr (+$847/mo · 221.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $172,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$82,623
• − Property taxes: −$4,600
• − Insurance: −$7,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,763
• − Management: −$13,763
• − Depreciation: −$42,909
• Taxable income: $7,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $29,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 105,428
• Household income: $62,077
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7574.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Asian 10% Two or more races 8% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 16%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -546.38%
• Current HPI: 376.1489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+183.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $1,475,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-03-08 Listed $925,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2018-03-08 Listed $925,000 RLS at REBNY
• 2016-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,600 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.