105 Garden Cir Unit 109-4 · Branson, MO 65616

$132,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Condo · 102 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $123/sqft · 15% below area Est $155k · 15% under $153/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime Branson condo investment opportunity just minutes from Silver Dollar City, Tanger Outlets, White Water, and the famous Branson Strip. These tenant-occupied condos offer strong rental demand in a highly desirable location. Whether you're expanding your portfolio or securing property in one of Branson's most visited areas, this opportunity is worth a look. Buy one or both! * * Photos representative only. * *

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• $153 HOA
• Built 2006

Tags

• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $132k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1057 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $916 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,214 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,325
• List price: $132,500
• Delta: -14.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-30,406
• Equity at exit: $19,756

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-38,004
• Equity at exit: $11,456

Cash invested: $37,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1057
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$695
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$153
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $112,214

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-94	+0% $-140	+5% $-186	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-187	+0% $-140	+5% $-94	+10% $-47
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-106	base $-140	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,125
• Closing costs: $3,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Garden Cir #3 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,075	$0.98	45d	1	0.03mi
400 Judy St #05 Branson, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	45d	1	0.47mi
400 Judy St Branson, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	45d	1	0.47mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	45d	1	0.96mi
3245 Falls Pkwy Unit 335 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	864	$995	$1.15	45d	1	1.18mi
750 Windsor Ct Apt 206 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	715	$1,195	$1.67	45d	1	1.41mi
750 Windsor Ct Unit GQ 106 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	715	$1,050	$1.47	45d	1	1.41mi
1705 Neihardt Ave Unit 1705 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,300	$1.16	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $153 · $1,836/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $132,500 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $132,500 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $132,500 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $132,500 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $132,500 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $132,500 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $132,500 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $132,500 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $132,500 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $132,500 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $132,500 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $132,500 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $132,500 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $132,500 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $132,500 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $132,500 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $132,500 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Prime Branson condo investment opportunity just minutes from Silver Dollar City, Tanger Outlets, White Water, and the famous Branson Strip. These tenant-occupied condos offer strong rental demand in a highly desirable location. Whether you're expanding your portfolio or securing property in one of Branson's most visited areas, this opportunity is worth a look. Buy one or both! * * Photos representative only. * *

18. 2026-03-11
    listed $135,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    Prime Branson condo investment opportunity just minutes from Silver Dollar City, Tanger Outlets, White Water, and the famous Branson Strip. These tenant-occupied condos offer strong rental demand in a highly desirable location. Whether you're expanding your portfolio or securing property in one of Branson's most visited areas, this opportunity is worth a look. Buy one or both! * * Photos representative only. * *

19. 2025-04-25
    price $143,900
20. 2025-02-20
    listed $147,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,422
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − HOA: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$3,855
• Taxable loss: −$3,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $-743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Branson condo is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers strong rental demand in a highly desirable location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value
• Both Install new kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts more renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value ↑
• Both Install new kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and attracts more renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $132,500 SOMO
• 2026-03-11 Listed $135,000 SOMO
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $143,900 SOMO
• 2025-02-20 Listed $147,000 SOMO