213 Manapaqua Ave · Lakehurst, NJ 08733

$299,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

APPROXIMATELY 5 YEARS APPLIANCE, 2 SHEDS, ROOF 2 YEARS, NICE PROPERTY, HUGE KITCHEN, LOTS OF POTENTIAL. ,Oil Tank Above Ground

Key facts

• Leased solar panels
• Quaint downtown
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LEASED SOLAR PANELS
• HISTORIC LAKEHURST
• QUAINT DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography; Basement with Bilco-style doors and other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on first level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil above-ground heating with forced air; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: AC units; Ceiling fan(s); Light fixtures; Self/cleaning oven; Enclosed room (first level); Living room (first level); Dining room (first level)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room (first level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Lakehurst School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #589 of 612 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $300k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,522
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $48,676
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08733

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,573/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$728
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,632

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 542-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $299,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,022 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,448/yr (+$121/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,573
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,329
• − Management: −$3,329
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $3,347
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$803
• After-tax cash flow: $7,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakehurst School District
• NCES district ID: 3408160
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $60,420
• Composite: 22.13/100
• National rank: #13525
• State rank: #589 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Lakehurst

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #7255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living D Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehurst, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,864

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.53%
• Current HPI: 363.7763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $299,999 MOMLS
• 2008-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-16 Sold (MLS) $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-06-02 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,573 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.