5120 W Fairfield Dr · Myrtle Grove, FL 32506

$194,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1970 0.35 ac lot Est $217k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Updated 4-Bedroom Home in West Pensacola! Welcome to this charming four-bedroom, two-bath home in the heart of West Pensacola, where modern updates meet everyday comfort. The open-concept living and dining area creates the perfect space for hosting guests and making lasting memories. The kitchen is a true centerpiece, featuring granite and butcher block countertops, sleek stainless steel appliances, and plenty of room for culinary creativity. Four spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The primary suite offers its own private bath for convenience and privacy, while a separate entrance opens the door for work-from-home options or other creati

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Private bath
• Storage shed

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BATH
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public/County maintained road access; Approximately 0.35 acre lot
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Two total parking spaces; Two covered spaces; Two-car carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story block and concrete construction; Slab foundation; One level; Resale property; Detached (not attached to other properties)
• Construction: Built with block and concrete; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; One-story
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Chain link fence; Other fence type; Yard building (additional structure); Shingle roof; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with granite counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric water heater (ENERGY STAR qualified water heater)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Updated bathrooms (renovated within the last 1–5 years)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Double pane windows; Storm windows; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Myrtle Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#701 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $194k implies a 235% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,954
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Cherokee Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (+4%)	2mo	$259,000	$175	69
1402 N 57th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (-9%)	4mo	$247,500	$192	67
29 Nottingham Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+6%)	8mo	$220,000	$147	66
110 Tomahawk Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-3%)	8mo	$151,000	$110	62
4915 Tulip Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,229 (-13%)	1mo	$186,500	$152	57
5911 Lillian Hwy	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (+6%)	1mo	$120,000	$80	55
233 Tonawanda Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,308 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$153	54
18 Besma Dr	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,342 (-5%)	5mo	$95,000	$71	52
2 Adkinson Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,548 (+9%)	1mo	$252,000	$163	52
1904 N 61st Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$171	50
104 Cherokee Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (+12%)	4mo	$70,000	$44	45
6400 Birkhead Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (+15%)	10mo	$282,000	$173	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,759
• Equity at exit: $29,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,051
• Equity at exit: $16,817

Cash invested: $54,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,845 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,597/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $194,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $278	+0% $223	+5% $168	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $77	-5% $150	+0% $223	+5% $296	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $273	base $223	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,625
• Closing costs: $5,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Vanderbilt Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	22d	1	0.57mi
4519 Martha Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.92mi
221 Edison Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,598	$1.07	24d	1	1.00mi
3216 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,700	$1.52	24d	1	1.13mi
2702 Massachusetts Ave Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1150	$1,745	$1.52	14d	9	1.15mi
3296 Two Sisters Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	1856	$1,795	$0.97	24d	1	1.17mi
5501 Mayfair Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,295	$1.42	24d	1	1.28mi
1860 Broyhill Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,600	$1.02	24d	1	1.32mi
3230 Palmdale Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	24d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-18
   price $194,500
5. 2025-12-08
   status Active
6. 2025-10-20
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-02
   listed $199,500 Active
8. 2025-06-04
   historical
9. 2025-05-13
   price $209,000
10. 2025-05-13
    price $209,000
11. 2025-03-31
    listed $219,000 Active
12. 2025-03-31
    listed $219,000 Active
13. 2024-09-12
    historical
14. 2024-08-06
    price $165,000
15. 2024-08-01
    price $165,000
16. 2024-08-01
    price $165,000
17. 2024-07-06
    price $175,000
18. 2024-07-03
    price $175,000
19. 2024-07-03
    price $175,000
20. 2024-06-14
    price $189,000
21. 2024-06-14
    price $189,000
22. 2024-06-14
    price $189,000
23. 2024-06-02
    listed $199,000 Active
24. 2024-05-31
    listed $199,000 Active
25. 2024-05-31
    listed $199,000 Active
26. 2024-03-09
    historical
27. 2023-10-31
    price $199,900
28. 2023-09-30
    price $210,000
29. 2023-09-08
    listed $220,000 Active
30. 2011-06-03
    historical
31. 2011-04-04
    listed $77,000
32. 2004-12-29
    soldstatus $58,000
33. 2002-05-28
    soldstatus $33,000
34. 2001-12-21
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,614 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,895
• − Property taxes: −$1,597
• − Insurance: −$972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,771
• − Management: −$1,771
• − Depreciation: −$5,658
• Taxable loss: −$530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$127
• After-tax cash flow: $2,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Myrtle Grove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #14805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Myrtle Grove, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 1,170
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+457.3% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $194,500 PARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $199,500 PARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $209,000 PARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $209,000 BCAR
• 2025-03-31 Listed $219,000 BCAR
• 2025-03-31 Listed $219,000 PARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $165,000 PARMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $165,000 ECAR
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-07-06 Price Changed $175,000 PARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $175,000 ECAR
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $175,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $189,000 ECAR
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $189,000 PARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-02 Listed $199,000 ECAR
• 2024-05-31 Listed $199,000 PARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-03-09 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-10-31 Price Changed $199,900 PARMLS
• 2023-09-30 Price Changed $210,000 PARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $220,000 PARMLS
• 2011-06-03 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2011-04-04 Listed $77,000 PARMLS
• 2004-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-28 Sold (MLS) $33,000 PARMLS
• 2001-12-21 Listed $34,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,597 · +220.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.