4428 Forge Rd · Honeygo, MD 21128

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1956 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

List price is Opening Bid at The Online Only Auction Sale to Be Held on The Auctioneers Website – Bidding begins Thursday, June 11th and ends Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 12:00PM. Charming Rancher on a Spacious 0.27± Acre Lot in Desirable Perry Hall, Baltimore County. Charming rancher located in desirable Perry Hall featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and approximately 2,296± total square feet situated on a 0.27± acre lot. The main level offers wood floors throughout the living room, dining room, and all bedrooms, along with an eat-in kitchen. The full unfinished lower level provides abundant storage space, laundry area, and rear walk-out access with excellent potenti

Key facts

• Rear walk-out access
• Wood floors
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS 0.27 ACRE LOT
• WOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FULL UNFINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• ABUNDANT STORAGE SPACE
• REAR WALK-OUT ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (4 spaces); Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Year built source: Assessor; Ownership: Fee simple
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Detached structure; Other above- and below-grade structures; Lot dimensions listed as 1.00 x

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Improved, heated basement with interior access; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.7% in Honeygo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $150k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.55%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $449,904
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9808 Richlyn Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,428 (-13%)	14mo	$400,000	$280	62
9809 Gunforge Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-10%)	20mo	$412,000	$277	59
9909 Richlyn Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,794 (+9%)	19mo	$470,000	$262	48
4254 Chapel Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,612 (-2%)	19mo	$307,000	$190	44
4632 Forge Acre Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+7%)	20mo	$480,000	$273	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $34,981
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $107,094
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21128

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,623 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,523/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,014	-5% $972	+0% $929	+5% $887	+10% $844
Rent	-10% $722	-5% $826	+0% $929	+5% $1,033	+10% $1,136
Rate	-1.0pp $1,005	-0.5pp $967	base $929	+0.5pp $890	+1.0pp $851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5109 Strawbridge Ter #5109 Perry Hall, MD	3.0	2.5	2048	$2,900	$1.42	15d	1	0.72mi
8 Chapeltowne Cir Nottingham, MD	2.0	2.0	1172	$1,881	$1.60	2d	8	0.87mi
5077 Cameo Ter Unit 1546334P Perry Hall, MD	3.0	2.0	2023	$4,193	$2.07	15d	1	0.89mi
23 Glasshouse Garth Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.38mi
19 Glasshouse Garth Unit 1 Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.5	1534	$2,475	$1.61	18d	1	1.38mi
19 Glasshouse Garth Nottingham, MD	3.0	3.0	1534	$2,475	$1.61	11d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $150,000 Active
15. 1982-01-21
    soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,523 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,523 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,523
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,255
• After-tax cash flow: $8,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Honeygo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Honeygo, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 14,954
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 15,501
• Household income: $128,069
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Asian 16% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.20%
• Current HPI: 224.2879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+123.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1982-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,523 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.