Canary 1730 YR Plan · Killeen, TX 76542

$200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 314 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Yowell Ranch offers modern single-family homes with a pool, trails, splash pad, dog park, and scenic green spaces for active family living.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Lush green spaces
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• WALKING TRAILS
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• SPLASH PAD
• DOG PARK
• LUSH GREEN SPACES

🏗️ New construction. The $200,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $231,549.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Killeen — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saegert El (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 954 students, 57% FRL); Charles E Patterson Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 56% FRL); C E Ellison H S (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,682 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,933 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,549
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -13.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2204 Mikulec Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,796 (+4%)	6mo	$205,000	$114	62
2203 Riley Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,867 (+8%)	6mo	$219,900	$118	61
2313 Maedell Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,895 (+9%)	2mo	$195,000	$103	60
5511 Orts Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,796 (+4%)	2mo	$221,000	$123	57
6302 Lolly Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-14%)	8mo	$215,000	$145	54
2004 Schorn Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,821 (+5%)	6mo	$225,200	$124	53
5711 Bertha Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,980 (+14%)	4mo	$230,000	$116	49
2187 Stagecoach Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (-15%)	8mo	$277,000	$187	48
6605 Wells Fargo Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (+4%)	9mo	$386,000	$215	48
2301 Napier Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+8%)	3mo	$181,500	$97	46
5712 Schneider Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,946 (+12%)	9mo	$260,000	$134	42
1906 Schorn St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,982 (+14%)	4mo	$270,000	$136	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-59,363
• Equity at exit: $34,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-92,505
• Equity at exit: $20,020

Cash invested: $64,834 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $255,300 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76542

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,214
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$289 /mo · $3,473/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,026

Max offer price $193,114

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-186	+0% $-266	+5% $-346	+10% $-426
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-332	+0% $-266	+5% $-199	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-207	base $-266	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,887
• Closing costs: $6,946
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6104 Alexus Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,600	$0.86	184d	1	0.24mi
6104 Alexus Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,600	$0.86	164d	1	0.24mi
6100 Alexus Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$1,695	$0.99	45d	1	0.26mi
230 Mighty Oak Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1990	$1,550	$0.78	46d	1	0.33mi
5905 Lolly Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,475	$1.00	51d	1	0.35mi
2409 Riley Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1859	$1,700	$0.91	10d	1	0.35mi
2410 Price Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,525	$0.98	9d	1	0.38mi
2300 Maedell Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,625	$1.09	10d	1	0.38mi
1908 Charleston Ct Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,250	$1.02	1d	1	0.49mi
5708 Schneider Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$1,675	$0.90	10d	1	0.50mi
5704 Schneider Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1796	$1,595	$0.89	184d	1	0.51mi
5614 Orts Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1953	$1,741	$0.89	10d	1	0.53mi
1804 Lobrecht Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2047	$1,545	$0.75	10d	1	0.55mi
2001 Charleston Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,250	$1.00	2d	1	0.55mi
2001 Charleston Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,250	$1.00	33d	1	0.55mi
5608 Orts Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,375	$0.96	10d	1	0.55mi
2009 Charleston Ct Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,075	$0.83	9d	1	0.60mi
5514 Orts Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,400	$0.97	10d	1	0.61mi
2105 Charleston Ct Apt B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,175	$0.97	38d	1	0.64mi
2205 Napier Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$1,650	$0.77	51d	1	0.70mi
3214 Shawlands Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$1,795	$1.09	184d	1	0.73mi
5400 Jitterbug Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	2064	$1,750	$0.85	10d	1	0.76mi
9007 Devonshire Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,575	$1.08	8d	1	0.77mi
5302 Jitterbug Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,825	$0.91	51d	1	0.79mi
5302 Jitterbug Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,795	$0.90	0d	1	0.79mi
5302 Jitterbug Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,795	$0.90	10d	1	0.79mi
6908 Catherine Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1559	$1,750	$1.12	1d	1	0.82mi
9011 Sandyford Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1705	$1,795	$1.05	31d	1	0.82mi
6510 Catherine Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,750	$0.93	10d	1	0.82mi
9207 Bellgrove Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,795	$1.10	31d	1	0.83mi
9207 Bellgrove Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,795	$1.10	10d	1	0.83mi
1410 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,250	$1.01	184d	1	0.85mi
6710 Alvin Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,700	$0.91	164d	1	0.85mi
1312 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,195	$0.96	184d	1	0.87mi
1411 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,200	$1.02	164d	1	0.88mi
9405 Glynhill Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,795	$1.10	154d	1	0.88mi
1501 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$985	$0.74	164d	1	0.89mi
1508 Nicholas Cir Apt A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,100	$0.89	184d	1	0.90mi
9209 Sandyford Ct Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1695	$1,795	$1.06	10d	1	0.91mi
1309 Nicholas Cir Apt B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	10d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 307 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 303 DOM
10. 2025-07-31
    listed $200,000 Active 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Yowell Ranch offers modern single-family homes with a pool, trails, splash pad, dog park, and scenic green spaces for active family living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,970
• − Property taxes: −$3,473
• − Insurance: −$1,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$6,736
• Taxable loss: −$7,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,754
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,665–$25,995 screening

The home is in fair condition with good exterior and interior features. Painting the exterior and improving landscaping can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system is running efficiently and can prevent costly repairs in the future. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Saegert El F TX #1,921/4,322 Nat'l #22,595/41,679 Middle Charles E Patterson Middle F TX #717/1,662 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Chaparral H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 371,114 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,892
• Household income: $74,055
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.94%
• Current HPI: 158.4385
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Listed $200,000 Zillow