Canary 1730 YR Plan · Killeen, TX 76542

$200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 314 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Yowell Ranch offers modern single-family homes with a pool, trails, splash pad, dog park, and scenic green spaces for active family living.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Lush green spaces
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• WALKING TRAILS
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• SPLASH PAD
• DOG PARK
• LUSH GREEN SPACES

🏗️ New construction. The $200,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,268.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saegert El (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 954 students, 57% FRL); Charles E Patterson Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 56% FRL); C E Ellison H S (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,682 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 653 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,523 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.39%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,268
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -17.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2004 Schorn Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,821 (+5%)	1mo	$225,200	$124	56
5610 Bertha Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,810 (+4%)	6mo	$185,990	$103	54
2203 Maedell Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-11%)	5mo	$218,500	$142	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-66,832
• Equity at exit: $35,974

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-106,343
• Equity at exit: $20,860

Cash invested: $67,555 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76542

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,265
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,619/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,111

Max offer price $189,216

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-276	+0% $-360	+5% $-443	+10% $-526
Rent	-10% $-490	-5% $-425	+0% $-360	+5% $-294	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-298	base $-360	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-486

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,317
• Closing costs: $7,238
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6104 Alexus Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,600	$0.86	46d	1	0.24mi
6104 Alexus Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1863	$1,600	$0.86	25d	1	0.24mi
2300 Maedell Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,650	$1.10	46d	1	0.38mi
5704 Schneider Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1796	$1,595	$0.89	46d	1	0.51mi
5614 Orts Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1953	$1,741	$0.89	46d	1	0.53mi
2001 Charleston Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,300	$1.00	16d	1	0.55mi
3214 Shawlands Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$1,795	$1.09	46d	1	0.73mi
1410 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,250	$1.01	46d	1	0.85mi
6710 Alvin Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,700	$0.91	25d	1	0.85mi
1312 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,195	$0.96	46d	1	0.87mi
1411 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,200	$1.02	25d	1	0.88mi
9405 Glynhill Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,795	$1.10	16d	1	0.88mi
1501 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$985	$0.74	25d	1	0.89mi
1508 Nicholas Cir Apt A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,100	$0.89	46d	1	0.90mi
1309 Nicholas Cir Apt B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	46d	1	0.91mi
1507 Nicholas Cir Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,095	$0.91	16d	1	0.92mi
1600 Nicholas Cir Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,095	$0.95	16d	1	0.93mi
9210 Sandyford Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,650	$1.08	16d	1	0.94mi
2109 Schottische Ln Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$1,675	$0.92	46d	1	0.95mi
5706 Aquarius Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,250	$1.02	25d	1	0.96mi
701 Atlas Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,695	$0.91	25d	1	1.01mi
1104 Nicholas Cir Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1241	$1,175	$0.95	46d	1	1.02mi
1102 Nicholas Cir Apt A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$985	$0.74	16d	1	1.03mi
700 Aries Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1721	$1,560	$0.91	46d	1	1.03mi
607 Constellation Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1809	$1,650	$0.91	16d	1	1.13mi
3809 Sugar Hackberry Trl Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,575	$1.37	16d	1	1.13mi
3803 Sugar Hackberry Trl Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,500	$1.28	25d	1	1.13mi
3903 Sugar Hackberry Trl Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,595	$1.36	16d	1	1.13mi
3903 Sugar Hackberry Trl Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,595	$1.36	25d	1	1.13mi
607 Perseus Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,600	$0.84	46d	1	1.15mi
3804 American Elm Dr Unit A2 Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	46d	1	1.16mi
3906 American Elm Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,600	$1.36	46d	1	1.16mi
3900 American Elm Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,500	$1.28	25d	1	1.16mi
3808 American Elm Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,595	$1.36	46d	1	1.16mi
3809 Sugar Hackberry Trl Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,545	$1.34	46d	1	1.16mi
6902 Cassidy Ln Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$1,695	$0.95	46d	1	1.18mi
1706 Bristol Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$1,595	$0.87	16d	1	1.20mi
506 Constellation Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,695	$1.05	46d	1	1.21mi
811 Marlow Cv Killeen, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,100	$1.00	25d	1	1.24mi
4603 Dartmouth Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$1,600	$0.76	46d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 307 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 303 DOM
10. 2025-07-31
    listed $200,000 Active 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Yowell Ranch offers modern single-family homes with a pool, trails, splash pad, dog park, and scenic green spaces for active family living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,515
• − Property taxes: −$3,619
• − Insurance: −$1,206
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$7,019
• Taxable loss: −$8,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with good exterior and interior features. Painting the exterior and improving landscaping can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system is running efficiently and can prevent costly repairs in the future.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can make the home more attractive and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system is running efficiently and can prevent costly repairs in the future. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,892
• Household income: $74,055
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1167.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.94%
• Current HPI: 158.4385
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Listed $200,000 Zillow