2409 Garfield Ave · Bay City, MI 48708

$88,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1920 4,791 sqft lot $86/sqft · 7% below area Est $95k · 7% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This adorable home is situated in a convenient south end neighborhood! Offering 2 nicely sized bedrooms, spacious living room and large eat-in kitchen with vintage flair overlooking the private backyard. The cozy enclosed front porch offers the perfect setting to enjoy a relaxing morning or an evening unwind! There's plenty of storage to be found in the basement & shed. This home features updated flooring throughout most of the home, newer furnace & central air, and has been cleaned top to bottom so you can move right in!

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Plenty of storage
• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEWER FURNACE
• CENTRAL AIR
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway access (road frontage implied)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: One-story residential home; Built in 1920; Frontage on a road
• Construction: Block foundation; Full basement
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Shed on the property; Paved street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate flooring; Kitchen approx. 15 x 12; Dishwasher, Range/Oven, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12) with carpet; Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 17 x 9) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living room; Laminate in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central A/C
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Full basement (block construction)
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (full)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $614 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,136 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,296
• List price: $88,800
• Delta: -6.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2420 Garfield Ave	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,022 (-1%)	2mo	$110,000	$108	89
1307 33rd St	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,084 (+5%)	1mo	$118,450	$109	81
308 High St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,088 (+5%)	1mo	$188,000	$173	70
1115 33rd St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	918 (-11%)	5mo	$76,900	$84	66
406 Stanton St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,044 (+1%)	2mo	$66,500	$64	63
2114 S Madison Ave	0.31mi	2/1.5	921 (-11%)	3mo	$125,000	$136	63
1301 Marsac St	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,128 (+9%)	5mo	$75,000	$66	59
1312 Hine St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (+4%)	3mo	$136,000	$127	59
2306 S Farragut St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,136 (+10%)	2mo	$140,000	$123	53
1910 34th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-9%)	3mo	$125,000	$134	48
1609 S VanBuren St	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+7%)	5mo	$50,000	$45	47
609 McCormick St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,156 (+12%)	3mo	$75,000	$65	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-5,072
• Equity at exit: $13,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,613
• Equity at exit: $7,678

Cash invested: $24,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$466
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,276/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $88,800

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $171	+0% $146	+5% $121	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $108	+0% $146	+5% $184	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $169	base $146	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,200
• Closing costs: $2,664
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Polk St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	748	$1,000	$1.34	44d	1	0.58mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $88,800 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $88,800 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    historical
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $88,800 Active 539-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    status Active
18. 2026-04-01
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
19. 2026-03-27
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,322 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,974
• − Property taxes: −$1,276
• − Insurance: −$444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$2,583
• Taxable income: $358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$86
• After-tax cash flow: $1,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $88,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,276 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.