407 Woodlawn Dr · Brush Creek, PA 15533

$52,500

4 bd · None ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 255 Days on market

Built 1992 3.05 ac lot $55/sqft · at area comps Est $58k · 10% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3+/- Wooded acres with a mobile home and electric. Would make a great location for a camp or getaway. Located minutes from Buchanan State Forest and Pike 2 Bike. Property is being sold AS-IS and does not have a well or septic system, will need to be a cash sale only. Property passed a perc test for an at grade mound system.

Key facts

• Wooded acres
• Pike 2 bike
• 3.05 acre lot

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• BUCHANAN STATE FOREST
• PIKE 2 BIKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath manufactured listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Southern Fulton SD (rural): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #355 of 539 in PA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($363 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 255 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $46,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 255 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.56%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,312
• List price: $52,500
• Delta: -9.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $46,431
• Equity at exit: $30,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $110,854
• Equity at exit: $52,262

Cash invested: $14,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15533

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $52,500

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,125
• Closing costs: $1,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,500 Active 255 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,500 Active 254 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,500 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,500 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,500 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $52,500 Active 249 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,500 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,500 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,500 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $52,500 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $52,500 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,500 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,500 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,500 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-03-25
    price $52,500 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    3+/- Wooded acres with a mobile home and electric. Would make a great location for a camp or getaway. Located minutes from Buchanan State Forest and Pike 2 Bike. Property is being sold AS-IS and does not have a well or septic system, will need to be a cash sale only. Property passed a perc test for an at grade mound system.

16. 2026-03-25
    price $52,500 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    3+/- Wooded acres with a mobile home and electric. Would make a great location for a camp or getaway. Located minutes from Buchanan State Forest and Pike 2 Bike. Property is being sold AS-IS and does not have a well or septic system, will need to be a cash sale only. Property passed a perc test for an at grade mound system.

17. 2025-10-06
    listed $58,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    3+/- Wooded acres with a mobile home and electric. Would make a great location for a camp or getaway. Located minutes from Buchanan State Forest and Pike 2 Bike. Property is being sold AS-IS and does not have a well or septic system, will need to be a cash sale only. Property passed a perc test for an at grade mound system.

18. 2025-10-06
    listed $58,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    3+/- Wooded acres with a mobile home and electric. Would make a great location for a camp or getaway. Located minutes from Buchanan State Forest and Pike 2 Bike. Property is being sold AS-IS and does not have a well or septic system, will need to be a cash sale only. Property passed a perc test for an at grade mound system.

19. 2025-03-20
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
20. 2025-03-20
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed
21. 2025-03-20
    soldstatus $45,000
22. 2025-03-05
    status Pending
23. 2025-03-05
    status Pending
24. 2025-02-25
    listed $45,000 Active
25. 2025-02-23
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $562 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $696 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,941
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$1,527
• Taxable income: $5,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,419
• After-tax cash flow: $4,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Fulton SD
• NCES district ID: 4222290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $51,506
• Composite: 34.14/100
• National rank: #5281
• State rank: #355 of 539 in PA

Livability — Brush Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,297

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,762 people
• By 2030: 13,167 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 11,836 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 10,342 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 7,170 · -47.9%
• By 2100: 4,581 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.5% · R 86.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -48.6pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+72.0 2016: R+70.8 2012: R+56.6 2008: R+48.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Current HPI: 161.2468
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $52,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $52,500 AHARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $58,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $58,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-20 Sold (MLS) $45,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Sold (MLS) $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-05 Pending — AHARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-23 Listed $45,000 AHARMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $562 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.