514 Sarahs Ln · Locust Grove, GA 30248

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1998 0.30 ac lot $171/sqft · 6% below area Est $240k · 6% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this well-maintained traditional ranch in Locust Grove, perfectly situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath split bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with durable vinyl siding and brick accents and a side-entry two-car garage adding classic curb appeal. Inside, you'll find LVP flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and a bright, open feel thanks to the vaulted family room and kitchen. The cozy gas log fireplace anchors the living space, while the kitchen features a new electric stove (with a gas hookup available for easy conversion), along with updated plumbing. Recent upgrades include a roof just 2-3 years old, new toilets, and a gas water heater. The spacious vaulted primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath featuring double sinks and vanities plus a separate shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the layout, with laundry conveniently located in the garage. With thoughtful updates, a desirable ranch layout, and a prime cul-de-sac location, this Locust Grove home is truly move-in ready and waiting for its next owner.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Durable vinyl siding
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• DURABLE VINYL SIDING
• BRICK ACCENTS
• SIDE-ENTRY TWO-CAR GARAGE
• LVP FLOORING
• COZY GAS LOG FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-623/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Unity Grove Elementary School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #612 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 838 students, 53% FRL); Locust Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #221 of 470 statewide, top 48%, 1,103 students, 51% FRL); Locust Grove High (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #232 of 424 statewide, top 56%, 1,637 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,061 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,050
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -6.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Sarahs Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,315 (0%)	0mo	$225,000	$171	100
521 Sarahs Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+2%)	1mo	$230,000	$172	95
481 Sarahs Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-6%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	85
303 Kellys Walk	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+4%)	5mo	$212,000	$155	78
963 Gettysburg Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+9%)	3mo	$250,000	$175	72
361 Hemlock Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-5%)	3mo	$155,000	$124	72
1215 Browns Country Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-0%)	5mo	$174,500	$133	68
176 Rockwood Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-1%)	5mo	$165,000	$127	63
208 Nadia Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-3%)	2mo	$165,000	$130	62
300 Leguin Mill Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-7%)	5mo	$278,000	$228	54
3019 Ryan Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+15%)	4mo	$269,900	$179	52
3026 Ryan Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+15%)	4mo	$270,000	$179	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-41,356
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-46,680
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 499
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,804/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $215,826

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $12	+0% $-52	+5% $-116	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-130	+0% $-52	+5% $26	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $5	base $-52	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Waters Edge Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,825	$1.38	26d	1	0.06mi
329 Kellys Walk Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,769	$1.14	5d	1	0.19mi
308 Kellys Walk Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,810	$1.37	1d	1	0.24mi
2237 Ross Ln Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	14d	1	0.39mi
1221 Browns Country Ln Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,759	$1.28	45d	1	0.56mi
163 Brentwood Ln Locust Grove, GA	4.0	3.0	1602	$1,650	$1.03	45d	1	0.62mi
206 Nadia Ct Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,785	$1.15	26d	1	0.64mi
384 Jasmine Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.5	1719	$1,880	$1.09	45d	1	0.94mi
239 Kings Cv Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,570	$1.06	14d	1	0.97mi
1320 Elmstead Pl Locust Grove, GA	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2245	$2,220	$0.99	0d	1	1.36mi
141 Colony Park Ln Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	1769	$1,931	$1.09	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-30
   price $225,000 1151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1151 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained traditional ranch in Locust Grove, perfectly situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath split bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with durable vinyl siding and brick accents and a side-entry two-car garage adding classic curb appeal. Inside, you'll find LVP flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and a bright, open feel thanks to the vaulted family room and kitchen. The cozy gas log fireplace anchors the living space, while the kitchen features a new electric stove (with a gas hookup available for easy conversion), along with updated plumbing. Recent upgrades include a roof just 2-3 years old, new toilets, and a gas water heater. The spacious vaulted primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath featuring double sinks and vanities plus a separate shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the layout, with laundry conveniently located in the garage. With thoughtful updates, a desirable ranch layout, and a prime cul-de-sac location, this Locust Grove home is truly move-in ready and waiting for its next owner.

2. 2026-02-11
   listed $235,000 New 1151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1151 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained traditional ranch in Locust Grove, perfectly situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath split bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, with durable vinyl siding and brick accents and a side-entry two-car garage adding classic curb appeal. Inside, you'll find LVP flooring throughout, fresh interior paint, and a bright, open feel thanks to the vaulted family room and kitchen. The cozy gas log fireplace anchors the living space, while the kitchen features a new electric stove (with a gas hookup available for easy conversion), along with updated plumbing. Recent upgrades include a roof just 2-3 years old, new toilets, and a gas water heater. The spacious vaulted primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath featuring double sinks and vanities plus a separate shower. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath complete the layout, with laundry conveniently located in the garage. With thoughtful updates, a desirable ranch layout, and a prime cul-de-sac location, this Locust Grove home is truly move-in ready and waiting for its next owner.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,804 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,804 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,804
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Locust Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #17034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Locust Grove, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $225,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $235,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,804 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.