3411 S Camino Seco -- #34 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $62/sqft · 16% above area Est $39k · 16% over $699/mo HOA · 52% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Parkwood home is on a pristine lot with mature trees and a ten by 20 foot screened porch. Three sheds for extra storage. The step-up kitchen has laminate flooring and a charming country feel. The rest of the home has laminate flooring throughout. The bath has updated, walk-in shower. Double paned windows and blinds for savings on heat and cooling. The home can be sold partially furnished.

Key facts

• Double paned windows
• Screened porch
• Three sheds

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• THREE SHEDS
• UPDATED WALK-IN SHOWER
• DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($545/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.33%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $38,542
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: 16.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #424	0.10mi	2/1.0	812 (+13%)	11mo	$40,000	$49	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-7,846
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-16,402
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$699
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $61	+0% $45	+5% $30	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $-7	+0% $45	+5% $98	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $57	base $45	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9170 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	668	$1,094	$1.64	3d	2	0.74mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,600	$1.85	3d	22	0.94mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,240	$2.03	3d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,094	$1.79	45d	1	1.00mi
3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,295	$1.77	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $699 · $8,388/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    listed $44,900 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    This charming Parkwood home is on a pristine lot with mature trees and a ten by 20 foot screened porch. Three sheds for extra storage. The step-up kitchen has laminate flooring and a charming country feel. The rest of the home has laminate flooring throughout. The bath has updated, walk-in shower. Double paned windows and blinds for savings on heat and cooling. The home can be sold partially furnished.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$84
• After-tax cash flow: $461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming Parkwood home on a pristine lot with mature trees and a screened porch is in good condition with laminate flooring and updated features. Minor exterior painting and replacing blinds would enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $44,900 ARMLS