Walton IV A Plan · Bowling Green, KY 42104

$226,736

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily · 429 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

Key facts

• Listed 428 days

🏗️ New construction. The $226,736 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,483.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 460 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $173,335 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.48%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,483
• List price: $226,736
• Delta: -22.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2803 Harvest Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,639 (+5%)	10mo	$229,250	$140	56
1720 Planters Way	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-3%)	15mo	$255,000	$169	52
2220 Grider Pond Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+2%)	20mo	$252,500	$158	50
1723 Pleasant Way	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,724 (+10%)	13mo	$250,000	$145	45
1922 Harvey Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,741 (+11%)	8mo	$332,000	$191	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-88,811
• Equity at exit: $43,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-132,256
• Equity at exit: $25,202

Cash invested: $81,615 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42104

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 460
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,529
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,372/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,550

Max offer price $198,147

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,871
• Closing costs: $8,744
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Chandler Dr Bowling Green, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$1,806	$1.66	13d	22	0.44mi
1500 Bryant Way Apt J2 Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1155	$995	$0.86	21d	1	0.95mi
2426 Thoroughbred Dr Bowling Green, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1025	$1,521	$1.48	13d	13	1.20mi
3353 Fair Oaks Cir Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,000	$1.35	21d	1	1.28mi
3372 Fair Oaks Cir Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,795	$1.16	13d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $226,736 Active 429 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,736 Active 428 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $226,736 Active 427 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $226,736 Active 426 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $226,736 Active 425 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,738 Active 425 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,738 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,738 Active 422 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $223,738 Active 420 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $223,738 Active 419 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $223,738 Active 418 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $223,738 Active 417 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $223,738 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,738 Active 412 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,738 Active 411 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,738 Active 410 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $223,738 Active 409 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $223,738 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

19. 2026-03-03
    price $216,465 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

20. 2026-02-03
    price $210,877 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

21. 2026-01-05
    price $205,613 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

22. 2025-12-03
    price $200,500 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

23. 2025-11-03
    price $195,572 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

24. 2025-08-11
    price $190,951 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

25. 2025-07-28
    price $202,816 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

26. 2025-04-17
    listed $216,199 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    A charming covered porch leads to a 4 Bedroom floor plan. The master Bedroom is split from the other Bedrooms by the spacious 'living center' of the house. The optional garage would provide a convenient entry to the home during bad weather or late nights. This plan would be a great addition to any location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,328
• − Property taxes: −$4,372
• − Insurance: −$1,457
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$8,480
• Taxable loss: −$13,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,160
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County
• NCES district ID: 2105730
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5958
• State rank: #48 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #12782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowling Green, KY
• County: Warren County · 129,408 people
• City population: 129,408
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• Population (ZIP): 42,076
• Household income: $75,164
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1426.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,620 people
• By 2030: 155,977 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 179,381 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 203,713 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 267,291 · +84.8%
• By 2100: 314,019 · +117.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% American 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+16.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.28%
• Current HPI: 192.9568
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+3.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $223,738 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $216,465 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $210,877 Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $205,613 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $200,500 Zillow
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $195,572 Zillow
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $190,951 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $202,816 Zillow
• 2025-04-17 Listed $216,199 Zillow