2411 30th St · Lubbock, TX 79411

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1943 8,400 sqft lot $78/sqft · 18% below area Est $195k · 18% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the Heart of Lubbock offers over 2,000 sq ft of comfortable living space with classic 1940s charm. Located just minutes from Texas Tech University, it's a perfect investment opportunity. The home features generously sized rooms, a great living area, and a large backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a spacious interior and a layout that offers both privacy and flow, it's move-in ready. Situated on a quiet street, you'll also enjoy easy access to local parks, restaurants, and shopping. Don't miss your chance to see this house, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Large backyard
• 8,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• LARGE BACKYARD
• QUIET STREET
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-109/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 7895% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,377
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -18.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-28,085
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-31,599
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79411

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,265/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,490

Max offer price $158,295

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	0.05mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.13mi
2319 28th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2146	$1,650	$0.77	21d	1	0.14mi
2220 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$1,300	$0.64	44d	1	0.20mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	21d	1	0.25mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.34mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	0.34mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	0.34mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	0.35mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.42mi
2701 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	0.46mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.47mi
2511 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,500	$1.05	21d	1	0.48mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.52mi
2118 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1435	$1,000	$0.70	21d	1	0.54mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	14d	1	0.57mi
2605 22nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2260	$1,960	$0.87	44d	1	0.58mi
2402 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	0.61mi
2009 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1615	$1,249	$0.77	44d	1	0.63mi
2113 22nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1404	$850	$0.61	21d	1	0.64mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.66mi
2124 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,150	$0.78	14d	1	0.75mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.78mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	14d	1	0.78mi
1716 24th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1742	$1,850	$1.06	44d	1	0.79mi
2104 20th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,700	$0.95	21d	1	0.80mi
1912 21st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,025	$0.70	44d	1	0.84mi
3115 32nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,200	$0.96	21d	1	0.87mi
1912 20th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,000	$0.63	21d	1	0.89mi
1607 Avenue Y Unit Y Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	14d	1	0.89mi
3119 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1888	$1,400	$0.74	21d	1	0.91mi
1517 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,095	$0.72	21d	1	0.94mi
2220 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,300	$0.92	21d	1	0.97mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	21d	1	0.98mi
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	21d	1	1.01mi
2119 15th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	44d	1	1.03mi
3302 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,725	$1.04	21d	1	1.03mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	44d	1	1.06mi
3319 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,500	$0.99	44d	1	1.15mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $2,000
18. 2026-05-06
    status Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the Heart of Lubbock offers over 2,000 sq ft of comfortable living space with classic 1940s charm. Located just minutes from Texas Tech University, it's a perfect investment opportunity. The home features generously sized rooms, a great living area, and a large backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a spacious interior and a layout that offers both privacy and flow, it's move-in ready. Situated on a quiet street, you'll also enjoy easy access to local parks, restaurants, and shopping. Don't miss your chance to see this house, schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-04-28
    status Pending 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the Heart of Lubbock offers over 2,000 sq ft of comfortable living space with classic 1940s charm. Located just minutes from Texas Tech University, it's a perfect investment opportunity. The home features generously sized rooms, a great living area, and a large backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a spacious interior and a layout that offers both privacy and flow, it's move-in ready. Situated on a quiet street, you'll also enjoy easy access to local parks, restaurants, and shopping. Don't miss your chance to see this house, schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-04-19
    price $159,900 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the Heart of Lubbock offers over 2,000 sq ft of comfortable living space with classic 1940s charm. Located just minutes from Texas Tech University, it's a perfect investment opportunity. The home features generously sized rooms, a great living area, and a large backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a spacious interior and a layout that offers both privacy and flow, it's move-in ready. Situated on a quiet street, you'll also enjoy easy access to local parks, restaurants, and shopping. Don't miss your chance to see this house, schedule your showing today!

21. 2026-03-11
    listed $175,000 Active 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    This spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath home in the Heart of Lubbock offers over 2,000 sq ft of comfortable living space with classic 1940s charm. Located just minutes from Texas Tech University, it's a perfect investment opportunity. The home features generously sized rooms, a great living area, and a large backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. With a spacious interior and a layout that offers both privacy and flow, it's move-in ready. Situated on a quiet street, you'll also enjoy easy access to local parks, restaurants, and shopping. Don't miss your chance to see this house, schedule your showing today!

22. 2026-01-01
    historical $2,000
23. 2025-11-16
    price $199,500
24. 2025-06-18
    listed $2,000
25. 2025-06-18
    historical $2,000
26. 2025-05-15
    price $2,000
27. 2025-05-07
    listed $2,100
28. 2025-04-29
    historical $2,100
29. 2025-04-17
    price $2,100
30. 2024-12-11
    historical $2,300
31. 2024-12-11
    listed $2,300
32. 2024-11-28
    listed $2,300
33. 2024-11-28
    historical $2,300
34. 2024-11-05
    listed $2,300
35. 2023-11-10
    historical $725
36. 2023-10-20
    listed $725
37. 2013-03-21
    soldstatus
38. 2007-02-02
    soldstatus
39. 1991-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,265
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$664
• After-tax cash flow: $555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,865
• Household income: $47,634
• Rent vs Own: 72.5% rent · 27.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 777.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 39% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.58%
• Current HPI: 210.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $159,900 LARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $2,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $199,500 LARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed for Rent $2,000 LARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2025-05-07 Listed for Rent $2,100 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-29 Rental Removed $2,100 BUILDIUM
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $2,100 BUILDIUM
• 2024-12-11 Rental Removed $2,300 LARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed for Rent $2,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-28 Listed for Rent $2,300 LARMLS
• 2024-11-28 Rental Removed $2,300 BUILDIUM
• 2024-11-05 Listed for Rent $2,300 BUILDIUM
• 2023-11-10 Rental Removed $725 LARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Listed for Rent $725 LARMLS
• 2013-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,265 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.