503 Knights Row Row · Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$325,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,481 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2004 0.29 ac lot $220/sqft · 16% below area Est $389k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the quiet Castle Terrace neighborhood, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a peaceful backdrop. The property backs up to a ranch, providing open views and a sense of privacy. The adjacent lot is also available for sale. The property features a gentle downhill slope, thoughtfully managed with French drains and other water-diversion systems to keep everything dry and worry-free. Brand new metal roof less than a year old adds long term value to the home. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a spacious living area and bedrooms designed for everyday comfort. An additional lot located next door is also available for purchase, offering a unique opportunity for expansion, added privacy, or future development. A great option for those seeking a quiet neighborhood, scenic surroundings, and room to grow—just minutes from local amenities while still feeling tucked away.

Key facts

• Open views
• Added privacy
• Spacious living area

Tags

• BACKS UP TO A RANCH
• OPEN VIEWS
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• ADDITIONAL LOT AVAILABLE
• ADDED PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-553 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $326k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,805 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,820
• List price: $325,500
• Delta: -16.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Right Ln Unit A	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,616 (+9%)	14mo	$415,000	$257	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-29,971
• Equity at exit: $110,195

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-11,276
• Equity at exit: $145,727

Cash invested: $91,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,793/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,838

Max offer price $227,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-461	+0% $-553	+5% $-645	+10% $-737
Rent	-10% $-722	-5% $-637	+0% $-553	+5% $-468	+10% $-384
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-470	base $-553	+0.5pp $-637	+1.0pp $-723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,375
• Closing costs: $9,765
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	14d	1	0.83mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	0d	1	0.84mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	14d	1	0.93mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	12d	1	0.95mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	25d	2	1.03mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	25d	1	1.03mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	45d	1	1.06mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	25d	1	1.15mi
2203 25th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,525	$0.91	25d	1	1.17mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	45d	1	1.29mi
723 Pecan Ln Cottonwood Shores, TX	2.0	1.0	1027	$1,400	$1.36	46d	1	1.29mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	45d	1	1.32mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	25d	1	1.34mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	45d	1	1.34mi
201 36th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,300	$1.39	22d	1	1.39mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,500 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,500 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,500 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,500 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,500 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,500 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,500 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,500 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,500 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,500 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,500 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,500 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,500 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,500 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-01-20
    listed $325,500 Active 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    Nestled in the quiet Castle Terrace neighborhood, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with a peaceful backdrop. The property backs up to a ranch, providing open views and a sense of privacy. The adjacent lot is also available for sale. The property features a gentle downhill slope, thoughtfully managed with French drains and other water-diversion systems to keep everything dry and worry-free. Brand new metal roof less than a year old adds long term value to the home. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a spacious living area and bedrooms designed for everyday comfort. An additional lot located next door is also available for purchase, offering a unique opportunity for expansion, added privacy, or future development. A great option for those seeking a quiet neighborhood, scenic surroundings, and room to grow—just minutes from local amenities while still feeling tucked away.

16. 2015-09-16
    soldstatus
17. 2007-03-12
    soldstatus $145,000
18. 2005-04-26
    soldstatus 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Quality Tejas New Home on beautiful wooded lot. Zero Down, 100% Financing * Custom features including 100% Masonry w/ stone front * 3/2 open floor plan * hi ceilings * rounded sheetrock corners * dbl pane windows * finished 2 car garage.

19. 2005-01-03
    listed $126,500 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Quality Tejas New Home on beautiful wooded lot. Zero Down, 100% Financing * Custom features including 100% Masonry w/ stone front * 3/2 open floor plan * hi ceilings * rounded sheetrock corners * dbl pane windows * finished 2 car garage.

20. 2004-12-07
    historical
21. 2004-08-18
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,957 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,164/yr (+$97/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,233
• − Property taxes: −$4,793
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$9,469
• Taxable loss: −$12,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,017
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cottonwood Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #8036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood Shores, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+157.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $325,500 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-26 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2005-01-03 Listed $126,500 Unlock MLS
• 2004-12-07 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2004-08-18 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,793 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.