8147 Fawn Cir · Pecan Plantation, TX 76049

$192,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1988 0.26 ac lot $143/sqft · 16% below area Est $227k · 16% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single Family Residence; County: Hood; Country: United States
• Financial info: Loan type: Treat As Clear; No second mortgage listed
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee of $400 (management fees included); HOA: River Run POA

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking; No carport; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: Asphalt access; Cable available; Septic
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property (not attached)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Built in 1988; Preowned
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Subdivision: River Run; GPS directions available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approximately 13 x 14
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; 1 fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.3% in Pecan Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#362 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Acton El (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 814 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,120 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.46%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,356
• List price: $192,000
• Delta: -15.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8147 Fawn Cir	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$192,000	$143	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,914
• Equity at exit: $28,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $16,555
• Equity at exit: $16,601

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,683/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $192,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $264	-5% $209	+0% $155	+5% $101	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $80	+0% $155	+5% $230	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $204	base $155	+0.5pp $105	+1.0pp $55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Titleist Ln Granbury, TX	2.0	2.0	1471	$2,600	$1.77	17d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Option Contract 397-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $192,000 Active 397-char remark
3. 2026-04-21
   historical
4. 2026-01-10
   price $199,000
5. 2025-11-12
   listed $202,000 Active
6. 2025-10-17
   historical
7. 2025-07-30
   price $214,900
8. 2025-05-24
   price $224,000
9. 2025-05-16
   listed $239,900 Active
10. 2024-05-29
    soldstatus
11. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2024-05-15
    status Pending
13. 2024-04-20
    historical Active Option Contract
14. 2024-04-18
    status Active
15. 2024-04-10
    historical Active Contingent
16. 2024-04-04
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus
18. 2018-04-11
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2018-03-19
    status Pending
20. 2018-03-08
    historical Active Option Contract
21. 2018-03-02
    listed $119,900 Active
22. 2017-07-07
    status Pending
23. 2017-06-25
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2017-06-24
    historical
25. 2017-05-15
    price $99,950
26. 2017-04-20
    listed $105,000 Active
27. 2016-03-01
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2016-03-01
    soldstatus
29. 2016-01-13
    status Pending
30. 2016-01-07
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2015-12-05
    price $74,900
32. 2015-11-20
    price $79,900
33. 2015-11-05
    listed $89,900 Active
34. 2005-11-22
    soldstatus
35. 2005-11-22
    soldstatus
36. 2005-10-22
    historical
37. 2005-09-04
    listed $69,900
38. 2001-01-11
    soldstatus
39. 1986-11-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,683 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,514 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$831/yr (+$69/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$2,683
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable loss: −$1,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$303
• After-tax cash flow: $2,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #7773

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+174.7% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $192,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $202,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $214,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $224,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-16 Listed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2024-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-04-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-04 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2018-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-03-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-03-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-03-02 Listed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2017-07-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-06-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2017-06-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-05-15 Price Changed $99,950 NTREIS
• 2017-04-20 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2016-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-03-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-01-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-01-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2015-12-05 Price Changed $74,900 NTREIS
• 2015-11-20 Price Changed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2015-11-05 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2005-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-10-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-09-04 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2001-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,683 · +30.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.