1303 30th #20 · Ilwaco, WA 98644

$209,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Manufactured · 347 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition $165/sqft · 26% below area Est $285k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand New PALM HARBOR HOME IN A GORGEOUS PARK SETTING. Own for less than rent!! The park is well maintained and managed. Retrograding park included all new underground utilities. Park fee includes water, sewer and front yard maintenance. A perfect place for weekend retreat or full time living, this is a community in and of itself. This unit is an NEW 3-bedroom, 1275' square foot home. Vaulted ceilings, open concept floorplan, tons of natural light, all new appliances, and dedicated parking. Located walking distance to the Beach and Discovery Trail and just south of downtown Seaview with convenient access to State Parks, Port of Ilwaco, Long Beach, shopping, restaurants, and Astoria. Schedul

Key facts

• Beach cottage
• Parking
• Built 2024

Tags

• BEACH COTTAGE
• DEDICATED PARKING SPOT
• EASY ACCESS TO STATE PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#205 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.24%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,648
• List price: $209,999
• Delta: -26.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1303 30th St #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	20mo	$190,000	$141	75
2113 Willows Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+13%)	13mo	$175,000	$122	41
4406 L Pl	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,168 (-8%)	15mo	$368,270	$315	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $97,388
• Equity at exit: $113,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $250,418
• Equity at exit: $192,287

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98644

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $209,999

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,999 Active 347 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,999 Active 346 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,999 Active 345 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,999 Active 344 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,999 Active 343 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,999 Active 342 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $209,999 Active 341 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,999 Active 338 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,999 Active 337 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,999 Active 336 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,999 Active 335 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 331 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 330 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,999 Active 329 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active
18. 2025-07-03
    listed $209,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥74°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $7,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,734
• After-tax cash flow: $8,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand-new Palm Harbor manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a perfect blend of comfort and value, ideal for retirement or full-time living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a small garden or planter box — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a small garden or planter box — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ilwaco

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #5623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 254.3311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-03 Listed $209,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid