Is Plan 2444 Modeled Plan in New Caney, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-608/mo modeled cash flow at a $254,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 2444 Modeled Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,849/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.34

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.7/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +2.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.2/10.0
DSCR +0.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$254,995

Plan 2444 Modeled Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition Garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

* Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Upstairs laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Game room * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * Den * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned playground * Planned splash pad

Key facts

Primary suite
Kitchen island
Game room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-608 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (17.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (27.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $185k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,884 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.62% ✗
Cap rate: 3.86%
Cash-on-cash: -8.70%
DSCR: 0.61
GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $299,313
List price: $254,995
Delta: -14.81%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20231 Monday Hargrove Rd	0.54mi	3/3.0	2,346 (-3%)	12mo	$309,000	$132	57
206 Dogwood	1.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,409 (-1%)	8mo	$335,000	$139	50
31879 Casey Rd	1.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,722 (+12%)	3mo	$65,000	$24	35
27450 Royal Coach	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,822 (-25%)	25mo	$175,000	$96	35
20490 Lazy Creek Dr	0.76mi	3/1.5	1,888 (-22%)	3mo	$350,000	$185	33
3402 Silver Chalice Dr	1.20mi	3/2.5	1,886 (-22%)	10mo	$299,000	$159	32
26961 Lantern Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,909 (-21%)	7mo	$295,000	$155	29
3427 Silver Chalice Dr	1.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,995 (-18%)	5mo	$299,000	$150	29
19112 Kings Row	1.17mi	3/3.0	2,812 (+16%)	12mo	$279,900	$100	28
139 Jett	1.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,914 (+20%)	7mo	$360,000	$124	27
26652 Saddle Rock Ln	0.92mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,112 (-13%)	11mo	$199,500	$94	27
20835 Pin Oak Rd	1.04mi	3/2.0	2,004 (-18%)	36mo	$330,000	$165	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.8%
Equity multiple: -0.10×
Total profit: $-92,240
Equity at exit: $44,628

10-year hold

IRR: -66.3%
Equity multiple: -0.79×
Total profit: $-149,658
Equity at exit: $25,879

Cash invested: $83,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 14 active
Months of supply: 84.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $250,740 ($112/sqft)
Median days on market: 122 d
This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

Home prices YoY: -24.7%
Rents YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 1238
Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,849 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,570
Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,490/yr
Insurance: −$125
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
Net cashflow: $-608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $211,349

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-401	-5% $-504	+0% $-608	+5% $-711	+10% $-815
Rent	-10% $-754	-5% $-681	+0% $-608	+5% $-535	+10% $-462
Rate	-1.0pp $-457	-0.5pp $-532	base $-608	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-764

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,828
Closing costs: $8,979
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Active listing (modified May 20, 2026)
Financial info: List price $262,995

Exterior

Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
Home design: New construction — Plan 2444 ModeledSingle-family home (plan inventory type)
Exterior features: Located at 20106 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney, TXLiving area about 2429

Interior

Kitchen: Standard kitchen included with the Plan 2444 model
Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
Interior features: Open living area (model of Plan 2444)

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $254,995 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $254,995 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $254,995 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $254,995 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $254,995 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $254,995 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $254,995 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $254,995 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $254,995 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $254,995 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $254,995 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $254,995 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $254,995 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $254,995 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $254,995 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $254,995 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $254,995 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $254,995 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $254,995 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $254,995 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $254,995 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $254,995 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $254,995 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $254,995 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $254,995 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $254,995 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $254,995 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $254,995 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $254,995 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $254,995 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $254,995 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $254,995 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $254,995 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $254,995 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $254,995 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-26

pricedays on market $254,995 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $262,995 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $262,995 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $262,995 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $262,995 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $262,995 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $262,995 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $262,995 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $262,995 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $262,995 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $262,995 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $262,995 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $262,995 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $262,995 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $262,995 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,186
− Mortgage interest: −$16,766
− Property taxes: −$4,490
− Insurance: −$1,497
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
− Management: −$1,775
− Depreciation: −$8,707
Taxable loss: −$12,823

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,078
After-tax cash flow: $-4,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates to the kitchen backsplash and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Kitchen backsplash — Enhances curb appeal and functionality ↑
Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: New Caney ISD
NCES district ID: 4832400
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $55,380
Composite: 27.97/100
National rank: #6857
State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 37,592
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 37,592
Household income: $76,050
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
Current HPI: 266.8315
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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