950 Second St · New Madrid, MO 63869

$24,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 898 sqft · Other public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1940 6,969 sqft lot $28/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 247 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($813 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#309 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• New Madrid County R-I (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #291 of 324 in MO (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in New Madrid County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($172 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• New Madrid County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.41%
• DSCR: 4.76
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,908
• List price: $24,900
• Delta: -66.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.42×
• Total profit: $44,795
• Equity at exit: $22,432

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.9%
• Equity multiple: 16.40×
• Total profit: $107,351
• Equity at exit: $48,375

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63869

• Home prices YoY: 22.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $129/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $192

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $497	+0% $490	+5% $483	+10% $476
Rent	-10% $426	-5% $458	+0% $490	+5% $523	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $497	base $490	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $24,900 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $24,900 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,900 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,900 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,900 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $24,900 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,900 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,900 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-01-08
    status Active
17. 2025-10-08
    listed $24,900 Active
18. 2024-01-02
    historical
19. 2023-06-15
    listed $35,000 Active
20. 2023-06-14
    historical
21. 2021-06-29
    soldstatus
22. 2021-06-16
    soldstatus
23. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $129 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $242 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 87.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$129
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$780
• − Management: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $5,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $4,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Madrid County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2900004
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,286
• Composite: 20.64/100
• National rank: #8543
• State rank: #291 of 324 in MO

Livability — New Madrid

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #14083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Madrid, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,184

Population outlook (New Madrid County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,712 people
• By 2030: 15,845 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 14,152 · -15.3%
• By 2050: 12,604 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 9,478 · -43.3%
• By 2100: 7,157 · -57.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 17% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · New Madrid

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.5) · D 22.9% · R 76.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.1pp · 2024: -53.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.5 2020: R+51.0 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+20.3 2008: R+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.78%
• Current HPI: 276.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-28.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $24,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-02 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-15 Listed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-14 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $129 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.