15606 S Gilbert Rd #101 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 162 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1979 Fair condition $50/sqft · 28% below area Est $62k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with drive-through parking for ultimate convenience. Step inside to find a comfortable, move-in ready layout, then unwind on your private enclosed patio -- perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation year-round. New AC Unit installed in 2024. Everything you need is just minutes away. Located near shopping, restaurants, grocery store and freeway access.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1979
• Listed 162 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Willis Junior High School (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #73 of 218 statewide, top 35%, 865 students, 55% FRL); Perry High School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 2,822 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.86%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,300
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -27.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15802 S Gilbert Rd #120	0.14mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	7mo	$34,600	$41	77
15802 S Gilbert Rd #37	0.11mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	18mo	$55,900	$67	69
15606 S Gilbert Rd #3	0.07mi	2/2.0	832 (-7%)	16mo	$75,000	$90	68
15606 S Gilbert Rd #49	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-20%)	15mo	$25,000	$35	57
15606 S Gilbert Rd #94	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-20%)	19mo	$35,000	$49	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $31,792
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $68,680
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $45,000 ($57/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $686	+0% $671	+5% $655	+10% $639
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $621	+0% $671	+5% $720	+10% $769
Rate	-1.0pp $693	-0.5pp $682	base $671	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
195 N Cottonwood St Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,475	$1.37	144d	1	0.60mi
195 N Cottonwood St Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	831	$1,500	$1.81	29d	1	0.60mi
25 N Cottonwood St #43 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	831	$1,500	$1.81	152d	1	0.60mi
25 N Cottonwood St #56 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,650	$1.53	0d	1	0.60mi
195 N Cottonwood St #18 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	831	$1,500	$1.81	32d	1	0.64mi
95 N Cooper Rd #72 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,695	$1.58	65d	1	0.70mi
95 N Cooper Rd #76 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,750	$1.63	94d	1	0.70mi
97 N Cooper Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	833	$1,495	$1.79	34d	1	0.71mi
93 N Cooper Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,698	$1.58	130d	2	0.78mi
99 N Cooper Rd #157 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,499	$1.39	107d	1	0.81mi
99 N Cooper Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	953	$1,698	$1.78	69d	2	0.83mi
99 N Cooper Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	831	$1,588	$1.91	145d	2	0.83mi
500 E Rivulon Blvd Gilbert, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.5	1147	$4,105	$3.58	0d	105	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Community poolAssociation covers grounds maintenanceLand lease of $862 monthly

Exterior

• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame constructionPainted exteriorMetal roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert front

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $45,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $45,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $45,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $45,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $45,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $45,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $45,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $45,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $45,000 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $45,000 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $45,000 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $45,000 Active 144 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $45,000 Active 143 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $45,000 Active 142 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 141 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $45,000 Active 140 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 139 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 138 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $45,000 Active 137 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 136 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $45,000 Active 135 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $45,000 Active 134 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $45,000 Active 133 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 132 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $45,000 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 125 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $45,000 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $45,000 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $45,000 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $45,000 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $45,000 Active 118 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $45,000 Active 117 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $45,000 Active 116 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $45,000 Active 114 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $45,000 Active 113 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $45,000 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,871
• After-tax cash flow: $6,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,480–$13,440 screening

This well-maintained mobile home requires minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor roof — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair roof — A new roof extends the home's lifespan and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chandler Traditional Academy-Humphrey D- AZ #308/1,109 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Willis Junior High School F AZ #73/218 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Perry High School D AZ #43/381 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Community poolAssociation covers grounds maintenanceLand lease of $862 monthly

Exterior

• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame constructionPainted exteriorMetal roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert front

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $49,900 ARMLS