15606 S Gilbert Rd #101 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition Est $60k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home sits on a desirable corner lot with drive-through parking for ultimate convenience. Step inside to find a comfortable, move-in ready layout, then unwind on your private enclosed patio -- perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation year-round. Everything you need is just minutes away. Located near shopping, restaurants, grocery store and freeway access.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1979
• Listed 22 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Community pool; Association covers grounds maintenance; Land lease of $862 monthly

Exterior

• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert front

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.0% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.11%
• DSCR: 4.92
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,032
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15802 S Gilbert Rd #120	0.14mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	3mo	$34,600	$41	81
15802 S Gilbert Rd #74	0.10mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	20mo	$60,000	$67	75
15802 S Gilbert Rd #37	0.11mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	14mo	$55,900	$67	73
15606 S Gilbert Rd #3	0.07mi	2/2.0	832 (-7%)	11mo	$75,000	$90	71
15606 S Gilbert Rd #134	0.11mi	2/1.5	820 (-8%)	19mo	$25,000	$30	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $52,194
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $110,038
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $1,026

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,060	-5% $1,043	+0% $1,026	+5% $1,009	+10% $991
Rent	-10% $889	-5% $957	+0% $1,026	+5% $1,094	+10% $1,163
Rate	-1.0pp $1,051	-0.5pp $1,039	base $1,026	+0.5pp $1,013	+1.0pp $1,000

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
195 N Cottonwood St Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,475	$1.37	4d	1	0.60mi
25 N Cottonwood St #43 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	831	$1,500	$1.81	12d	1	0.60mi
93 N Cooper Rd #32 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,750	$1.63	45d	1	0.82mi
99 N Cooper Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	831	$1,588	$1.91	5d	2	0.83mi
500 E Rivulon Blvd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$3,142	$2.73	0d	57	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 424-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $12,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,939
• After-tax cash flow: $9,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home requires minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor roof — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both repair roof — A new roof extends the home's lifespan and improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
roof · Aged appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace exterior siding — New siding improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both repair roof — A new roof extends the home's lifespan and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $49,900 ARMLS