426 W Cottonwood Ln #28 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$72,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $81k · 10% under $510/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Outside, you'll find a trex deck, custom storage shed, and a large carport. You also get the option to customize your landscaping and paint package to truly make it your own! Limited-time spring special - price reduced by $10,000. Act fast - only 4 homes left. These homes are thoughtfully designed for modern living and comfort. The interior features sleek cabinetry, durable hard flooring throughout, new appliances including a stacked washer/dryer, energy-efficient windows, and a smart thermostat. The spacious master suite boasts double sinks in the bath, while the versatile secondary room is perfect for guests or a home office. Winchester is on its way to becoming Casa Grande's premiere 5

Key facts

• Large carport
• Custom storage shed
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• TREX DECK
• CUSTOM STORAGE SHED
• LARGE CARPORT
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 784
• Financial info: List price: $72,500
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $510

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Electric-powered heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction with custom options

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas and heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer; Dryer
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($251/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $501 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,975 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 W Cottonwood Ln #13	0.00mi	2/2.0	784 (0%)	8mo	$81,000	$103	93
426 W Cottonwood Ln #11	0.00mi	2/2.0	784 (0%)	11mo	$88,000	$112	91
426 W Cottonwood Ln #20	0.00mi	2/2.5	786 (+0%)	8mo	$89,000	$113	91
426 W Cottonwood Ln #5	0.11mi	2/2.0	784 (0%)	13mo	$82,500	$105	84
426 W Cottonwood Ln #4	0.11mi	2/2.0	784 (0%)	14mo	$81,000	$103	83
426 W Cottonwood Ln #7	0.11mi	2/2.0	784 (0%)	15mo	$82,500	$105	82
450 W Sunwest Dr #21	0.12mi	2/2.0	896 (+14%)	12mo	$40,000	$45	61
120 W O'neil Dr #72	0.37mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	6mo	$22,000	$31	60
450 W Sunwest Dr #1	0.12mi	2/1.0	896 (+14%)	13mo	$59,000	$66	56
1451 N Pinal Ave #31	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	900 (+15%)	11mo	$15,000	$17	38
1451 N Pinal Ave #23	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	900 (+15%)	14mo	$9,000	$10	35
708 W Mcmurray Blvd #38	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+15%)	8mo	$30,000	$33	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-7,945
• Equity at exit: $10,810

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $5,211
• Equity at exit: $6,268

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$510
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $46	+0% $21	+5% $-4	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-31	+0% $21	+5% $73	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $39	base $21	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.41mi
290 W Viola St Unit 4 Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	15d	1	0.45mi
1550 N Casa Grande Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,199	$1.92	1d	1	0.76mi
1641 N Kadota Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	1d	3	0.82mi
701 W 12th St Unit F Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	745	$1,500	$2.01	25d	1	0.85mi
1564 N Morrison Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	871	$864	$0.99	1d	20	0.86mi
420 E McMurray Blvd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0	1.0	645	$895	$1.39	25d	1	0.89mi
1010 N Park Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	920	$1,100	$1.20	13d	1	0.91mi
507 W 10th St Apt D Casa Grande, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,050	$1.75	21d	1	0.95mi
1005 N Center Ave Unit A Casa Grande, AZ	1.0	1.0	525	$1,099	$2.09	4d	1	0.96mi
1005 N Center Ave Unit A Casa Grande, AZ	1.0	1.0	525	$1,099	$2.09	25d	1	0.96mi
1650 N Kadota Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	612	$1,170	$1.91	1d	5	0.98mi
416 W 9th St Unit 1 Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	13d	1	0.99mi
300 W 9th St Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	775	$999	$1.29	22d	1	1.00mi
419 W 9th St Apt A Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	25d	1	1.02mi
803 N Park Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	822	$1,275	$1.55	5d	1	1.08mi
1113 W Corinthian Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	981	$1,395	$1.42	15d	1	1.13mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,165	$1.99	1d	1	1.24mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	22d	3	1.25mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,295	$1.13	3d	12	1.38mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,492	$1.44	2d	29	1.45mi
511 N Brown Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	828	$1,150	$1.39	19d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $510 · $6,120/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,500 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,500 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,500 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $72,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $72,500 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $72,500 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $72,500 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $72,500 Active 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − HOA: −$6,120
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable loss: −$573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B